CANBERRA — The Liberal Party has been plunged into open civil war tonight, with Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor resigning from the frontbench to launch a formal leadership challenge against Sussan Ley.
The crisis, which has been brewing for months, escalated rapidly this evening following a tense private meeting between Mr. Taylor and the Opposition Leader. Emerging from Ms. Ley’s office, a grim-faced Mr. Taylor declared that the Liberal Party was facing an “existential threat” and could no longer ignore the “catastrophic” message being sent by voters.
“I have just informed Sussan Ley that I can no longer serve in her Shadow Cabinet,” Mr. Taylor told a packed media scrum in Parliament House. “The Liberal Party is currently polling at a primary vote of 18 per cent. We are not just trailing Labor; we are being eclipsed by One Nation. This is the worst position in our party’s history. We need strong leadership, clear direction, and a return to the values that forgotten Australians are crying out for.”
Right Faction Abandon Ship The challenge gained immediate and lethal momentum with the confirmed resignations of two of the party’s most influential powerbrokers: Senator James Paterson and Senator Matt O’Sullivan.
Their joint exit from the shadow ministry is viewed as the “dam breaking” moment for Ms. Ley’s leadership. Senator Paterson, previously a stabilizing figure who had urged adherence to Westminster conventions, released a statement saying his position had become untenable.
“I have always believed in loyalty to the leader,” Paterson wrote. “But my ultimate loyalty is to the Liberal Party and the millions of Australians who need a viable alternative government. With One Nation now commanding 27 per cent of the primary vote, continuing on our current trajectory is not stoicism—it is suicide.”
A Historic Low The catalyst for the spill is a devastating set of internal and public polls that show the Coalition’s primary vote collapsing to just 18 per cent—a record low that would see the party wiped out in major capital cities.
The rise of One Nation to 27 per cent represents a seismic shift in Australian politics, signaling that the Coalition’s traditional conservative base has fractured entirely. The “One Nation Surge” has been fueled by voter anger over cost-of-living pressures and a perception that the Liberals under Ms. Ley have drifted too far to the centre-left on social issues.
Ley’s Leadership on the Brink Sussan Ley, who made history in May 2025 as the first woman to lead the Liberal Party following the election loss and Peter Dutton’s defeat, has struggled to unite the party’s warring factions. Her supporters argue she has been undermined from day one by the conservative right, who never accepted her moderate stance.
“Sussan took on the hardest job in politics after the 2025 defeat,” a senior moderate source said tonight. “To knife her now, when the electorate is volatile, is an act of madness that will only hand the next election to Labor on a platter.”
However, the numbers in the party room appear to be shifting rapidly against her. With Taylor now openly campaigning and key institutional backers like Paterson and O’Sullivan withdrawing support, a party room meeting—and a leadership spill—is expected to be called within 24 hours.
Analysis: Why the Coalition is Imploding
1. The “One Nation” Eclipsing The most shocking aspect of this crisis is not the leadership challenge itself, but the polling data triggering it. For a minor party (One Nation) to poll 9 points higher than the Liberal Party (27% vs 18%) is unprecedented in Australian federal politics. It suggests that the “Broad Church” of the Liberal Party has collapsed, with working-class and regional conservatives defecting en masse. Taylor’s pitch is explicitly designed to win these voters back by pivoting hard to the right.
2. The Paterson Factor Senator James Paterson’s resignation is arguably more significant than Taylor’s. As a leading figure of the conservative faction who commands deep respect across the party for his intellect and discipline, his withdrawal of support signals to undecided MPs that the “Ley Experiment” is officially over. Paterson rarely moves without ensuring the numbers are secure, suggesting the coup has a high probability of success.
3. The Shadow of 2025 The roots of this spill lie in the May 2025 election defeat. When Peter Dutton lost his seat, the party turned to Ley—a moderate—in hopes of winning back the inner-city “Teal” seats. However, that strategy appears to have backfired spectacularly, bleeding votes in the outer suburbs and regions without regaining ground in the cities. The party is now trapped in a pincer movement: rejected by progressives in the city and abandoned by conservatives in the bush.
4. What Happens Next? Sussan Ley has vowed to fight, but the mathematics of the party room are ruthless. If a spill is declared, Angus Taylor will likely face a contest not just from Ley, but potentially other contenders like Andrew Hastie, though Hastie’s camp has remained silent tonight. The Liberal Party must decide by the end of the week who will lead them out of the wilderness—or if they are destined to fracture permanently.