The dramatic shift in Australian federal polling has intensified, with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party surging past the Liberal-National Coalition in key surveys conducted in late February 2026. Recent polls indicate One Nation capturing 27-28% of the primary vote, overtaking the Coalition’s faltering 19-20%, while the governing Labor Party holds steady at around 32%.In the latest Newspoll (conducted February 23-26, sample of 1,237), Labor sits on 32% primary support (down 1 point), One Nation remains strong at 27%, the Coalition rises slightly to 20% (up 2 points), and the Greens drop to 11%. A separate RedBridge Group poll (reported around the same period, sample of 1,006) shows Labor at 32% (down 2 points from the previous month), One Nation climbing to 28% (up 2), and the Coalition unchanged at 19%.
These figures mark a historic milestone for One Nation, which has rapidly ascended from fringe status post the May 2025 federal election to a clear second-place contender nationally. The party now consistently polls ahead of the Coalition on primary votes in multiple trackers, reflecting deep disillusionment among conservative voters.Regional divides are particularly stark. In rural and regional areas, One Nation demonstrates commanding strength, leading Labor 53-46 on two-party preferred (TPP) measures in some breakdowns. This urban-rural split underscores growing frustration in non-metropolitan electorates over issues like cost-of-living pressures, economic management, and perceived neglect by major parties.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have taken a hit, with approval dipping to 40% amid ongoing economic challenges. In the Newspoll, his preferred prime minister lead narrows, while in the RedBridge survey, a three-way contest places Albanese at 34%, Pauline Hanson at 23%, and new Opposition Leader Angus Taylor at 10%.The Coalition, under Taylor—who assumed leadership in mid-February following internal upheaval—has yet to see a significant bounce. While Taylor’s personal approval (35%) improves on his predecessor’s, the party’s primary vote languishes at record lows in some polls. Taylor has signaled openness to preference arrangements with One Nation in select contests, such as upcoming by-elections, stating he would “show respect” to One Nation voters and declining to rule out directing preferences their way in certain scenarios. This pragmatic stance contrasts with historical Coalition reluctance but reflects the urgency of stemming the right-wing vote bleed.
Voter sentiment echoes broader discontent. As one 72-year-old regional voter, Hawford, expressed in interviews tied to the polling wave, many feel Labor “no longer represents them” amid soaring living costs, housing pressures, and other grievances. Analysts attribute One Nation’s rise to a potent mix of economic hardship, cultural concerns, and protest voting against the major parties.Labor maintains solid TPP leads—54-46 over One Nation and 53-47 over the Coalition in respondent-allocated preferences from the RedBridge poll—suggesting the government’s path to re-election remains viable if current trends hold. However, the fragmentation on the right poses risks, potentially complicating preference flows and seat outcomes in a future election, due by 2028.The polls highlight a volatile political landscape, with One Nation’s momentum challenging traditional assumptions about Australia’s two-party dominance. As debates over economic policy, immigration, and national identity intensify, all parties face pressure to respond to this shifting electorate.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is a right-wing populist party in Australia, emphasising “Australia first” principles, economic nationalism, traditional values, and opposition to what it sees as excessive government intervention, globalism, and progressive policies. Its key policies, drawn from the party’s official website (onenation.org.au) and recent reporting as of early 2026, focus on cost-of-living relief, immigration control, energy realism, fiscal conservatism, and cultural/national sovereignty issues. Here are the main ones:
Immigration and Border Security: One Nation advocates for a major reduction in immigration levels to ease pressure on housing, infrastructure, wages, and services.
- Cap permanent visas at around 130,000 per year (a sharp cut from current levels under Labor).
- Deport illegal migrants (targeting tens of thousands).
- Introduce an eight-year waiting period for citizenship and access to welfare benefits.
- Reintroduce Temporary Protection Visas to prevent permanent residency pathways for certain arrivals.
- Refuse entry from countries seen as fostering “extremist ideologies” incompatible with Australian values.
- Stronger border enforcement and opposition to loopholes in the system.
This area remains a core driver of the party’s appeal, particularly in regional areas facing housing and service strains.
Economy, Tax, and Cost of LivingThe party prioritizes measures to reduce living costs and government overreach.
- Joint income tax filing for couples with at least one dependent child — allowing combined income to be split equally for tax purposes, providing significant relief for families.
- A $90 billion budget savings plan to slash “wasteful” government spending, streamline bureaucracy, and redirect funds to benefit everyday Australians.
- Halve the fuel excise (previously highlighted as a policy copied by others).
- Protectionist elements: Review and potentially revoke free trade agreements not in Australia’s interest, reintroduce tariffs where needed, oppose foreign ownership of agricultural land and key assets, and prioritize Australian jobs and industries.
Energy and Climate PolicyOne Nation rejects much of the current climate agenda.
- Scrap net zero emissions targets, viewed as leading to higher costs and government control.
- Build more coal-fired power stations and support nuclear energy (e.g., commission reactors in regional areas).
- Abolish the Renewable Energy Target, shut down the Department of Climate Change, and withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement.
- Oppose subsidies for foreign-owned solar and wind projects, and ban or restrict offshore wind farms.
- Prioritise affordable, reliable energy from Australia’s natural resources for domestic benefit.
Other Key Areas
- Free Speech: Enshrine free speech protections in the Constitution to prevent censorship and government overreach.
- Water and Infrastructure: Build new dams and water projects to support farmers and regional growth.
- Housing: Reduce demand pressures (via lower immigration) and other measures like GST moratoriums on building materials to improve affordability.
- Social/Cultural Issues: Oppose “gender ideology” in schools, support biological definitions (e.g., standing up for biological women), pro-life positions (reduce late-term abortion limits, ban sex-selective abortions, add safeguards/counselling), and resist Indigenous treaties or related initiatives.
- Governance: Push for citizen-initiated referenda, review politician salaries/pensions, and protect national sovereignty against multinational or foreign influence.
One Nation positions itself as the party representing “forgotten” Australians — especially in regional and outer-metropolitan areas — frustrated by major parties on issues like economic hardship, cultural change, and perceived elite priorities