CANBERRA – In a political earthquake that has shattered decades of Australian electoral convention, Newspoll has today confirmed that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has overtaken the Coalition to become the second-most popular political force in the country by primary vote.
The latest survey reveals a massive 7 per cent surge for the right-wing populist party, catapulting their primary support to 22 per cent. This historic rise places them ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition, which has slumped to a record low of 21 per cent, while Labor holds a diminished lead at 32 per cent
Pollsters and analysts are calling it “The Great Switch”—a chaotic realignment of the Australian electorate where voters are abandoning both traditional major parties in almost equal numbers.
The Numbers That Shook Canberra
The data paints a picture of a restless electorate punishing the establishment.
- One Nation: 22% (+7)
- Coalition: 21% (-3)
- Labor: 32% (-4)
- Greens: 12% (-1)
This marks the first time in Newspoll history that a minor party has polled higher than one of the two major parties that have governed Australia since World War II.
“We are witnessing a structural break in Australian politics,” said lead analyst George Hasanakos. “Typically, minor parties peel votes from one side of the spectrum. What makes this result unique is that One Nation is taking equally from Labor’s working-class base and the Coalition’s conservative heartland. It is a dual rebellion.”
A Plague on Both Their Houses
The 7-point jump appears to be driven by a perfect storm of voter dissatisfaction. With the cost-of-living crisis biting hard and concerns over social cohesion dominating recent headlines following the tragic events in Bondi earlier this month, voters appear to be seeking a “break glass” option.
For the Opposition Leader, falling to third place behind a minor party is a catastrophic blow, signaling that the Coalition is bleeding its primary constituency faster than it can replace them. Meanwhile, the Government is not immune; despite retaining the lead, Labor’s 4-point drop suggests that the “safe pair of hands” narrative is no longer resonating with struggling households.
“The Great Switch”
Political insiders are describing the phenomenon as “The Great Switch”—a direct transfer of trust from the establishment to the insurgent fringe.
“This isn’t just a protest vote anymore; it’s a parking maneuver,” said one Labor strategist, speaking on condition of anonymity. “People aren’t just flirting with One Nation to send a message; they are parking their vote there because they feel the majors have stopped listening.”
Senator Pauline Hanson, emboldened by the results, claimed the poll as vindication. “Australians have had a gutful of the twins—Labor and Liberal,” she said in a statement this morning. “They are finally waking up to the fact that they don’t have to choose between Coke and Pepsi. We are the real opposition now.”
What Happens Next?
While the next election is still distant, these numbers, if sustained, would make the formation of a majority government mathematically impossible for either major party. It raises the spectre of a chaotic hung parliament where One Nation could wield unprecedented balance-of-power influence—or potentially even threaten the Opposition’s status as the alternative government.
For now, the political class in Canberra is left scrambling to understand how the comfortable two-party system they knew has, seemingly overnight, been turned on its head.