The atmosphere at the One Nation election night headquarters in Kent Town was nothing short of electric last night as the results confirmed a seismic shift in South Australian politics. While the Malinauskas Labor government secured a second term, the real story of the night was the “Orange Earthquake” that saw One Nation surge to become the state’s second-most popular party by primary vote.
For a party that has often been viewed as a peripheral force in the south, yesterday’s results represent a historic breakthrough and a clear mandate from a disillusioned electorate.
A New Political Order
In what analysts are calling the “disintegration of the two-party system,” One Nation achieved its best result in nearly 30 years. By the time counting paused in the early hours of Sunday morning, the party had secured approximately 22% of the primary vote, effectively pushing the Liberal Party into a devastating third place.
| Party | Primary Vote (Approx.) | Trend |
| Labor | 38% | Steady |
| One Nation | 22% | Record High (+19%) |
| Liberal | 19% | Record Low |
| Greens | 12% | Steady |
Gemini said
The atmosphere at the One Nation election night headquarters in Kent Town was nothing short of electric last night as the results confirmed a seismic shift in South Australian politics. While the Malinauskas Labor government secured a second term, the real story of the night was the “Orange Earthquake” that saw One Nation surge to become the state’s second-most popular party by primary vote.
For a party that has often been viewed as a peripheral force in the south, yesterday’s results represent a historic breakthrough and a clear mandate from a disillusioned electorate.
A New Political Order
In what analysts are calling the “disintegration of the two-party system,” One Nation achieved its best result in nearly 30 years. By the time counting paused in the early hours of Sunday morning, the party had secured approximately 22% of the primary vote, effectively pushing the Liberal Party into a devastating third place.
Key Milestones from the Night
- The Second Force: For the first time in South Australian history, One Nation outpolled the Liberal Party statewide.
- Upper House Success: State leader Cory Bernardi secured a seat in the Legislative Council, ensuring the party a powerful platform to review and contest government legislation.
- Lower House Breakthrough: One Nation is currently leading the count in the regional seat of Hammond (Murray Bridge) and remains in a tight “three-cornered” preference battle for Mackillop and Ngadjuri.
“The Voice of the Regions”
The surge was driven largely by a massive “orange wave” across regional South Australia and the outer suburbs of Adelaide. Speaking to a jubilant crowd, federal leader Pauline Hanson described the result as a “new beginning” for the state.
“There is a movement. There is an undercurrent, and it’s people saying we’ve had a gutful. We want our country back, and tonight, South Australians finally have a real voice in their parliament.”
Cory Bernardi echoed this sentiment, noting that the “foundations of uni-party politics” have been rattled. The party’s strategy focused heavily on cost-of-living pressures and regional neglect, a message that clearly resonated with voters who felt abandoned by the traditional major parties.
What This Means for South Australia
With a significant presence in the Upper House and potentially several seats in the House of Assembly, One Nation is no longer just a “protest vote”—they are a formidable legislative force.
Premier Peter Malinauskas acknowledged the result in his victory speech, noting that the significant vote for One Nation “deserves recognition and credit.” As the state moves into this new four-year term, the “landmines” (as Hanson colourfully put it) laid by One Nation will ensure that the government is held to a much higher standard of accountability, particularly on issues affecting regional and working-class families.
1. The Regional Surge
Outside of Adelaide, the shift was stark. In regional South Australia, One Nation’s primary vote reached 27-28%, effectively pushing the Liberal Party into third place in several of its traditional heartland seats.
- Hammond: This has become the “ground zero” of the One Nation surge. Incumbent Liberal Adrian Pederick is in a fight for his political life. As of the latest count, the seat is on a knife-edge (roughly 51-49), with One Nation poised to potentially snatch it as the final postal votes arrive.
- MacKillop & Ngadjuri: These were true “three-cornered” battles. In both seats, the Liberal incumbents (Rebekah Rosser and Penny Pratt) are leading, but their margins have been slashed to roughly 54% on a two-candidate preferred basis. The “threat” here wasn’t just Labor, but a massive primary swing of 15–20% away from the Liberals toward One Nation.
2. Preference Flows: The Great Realignment
The traditional “leakage” of preferences has completely changed in 2026. Here’s how the numbers moved:
- The Liberal Strategy: In a desperate bid to hold regional seats, the Liberal Party directed preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor. While this helped keep Labor out of the final count in seats like Hammond, it backfired by legitimizing One Nation as the primary alternative to the government.
- The One Nation Factor: One Nation ran “open tickets” (no directed preferences), but their voters were highly disciplined. In the three-way contests, roughly 70% of One Nation preferences flowed back to the Liberals, which is the only reason the Liberals are still holding any regional seats at all.
Labor’s “Kind” Approach: Interestingly, Labor’s strategy of “reaching out” to disaffected regional voters (as seen in Malinauskas’ victory speech) helped them pick up enough primary support (24% in the regions) to stay relevant in seats they usually ignore, further squeezing the Liberal base.
3. Why It Happened: The “Unrepresented” Voter
According to exit polling (YouGov/Roy Morgan), the swing wasn’t necessarily a sudden love for One Nation policies, but a massive protest:
- 52% of One Nation voters cited “feeling unrepresented by major parties” as their primary motivator.
- Only 10% cited specific party policies.
| Party | Statewide Primary Vote (Approx.) | Regional Primary Vote (Approx.) |
| Labor | 38% | 24% |
| One Nation | 22% | 27% |
| Liberal | 19% | 21% |
The Result
The Liberal Party has been effectively reduced to a “regional rump,” holding perhaps only 4 to 8 seats statewide, while Cory Bernardi’s entry into the Upper House for One Nation signals a long-term shift in the state’s conservative balance of power.