President Donald Trump participated in a crucial bilateral meeting this week with the Prime Minister of the United KingdomKeir Starmer, signaling continued strong ties between the two nations amidst an evolving global landscape. The high-level discussions, held at an undisclosed location, focused on a range of pressing issues, including economic cooperation, national security, and ongoing international crises.
While specific details of the discussions have not been fully released, sources close to the negotiations indicate that trade relations were a significant agenda item. Both leaders are reportedly keen to explore new avenues for economic growth and stability, potentially building on existing agreements and addressing contemporary trade challenges.
The meeting also underscored the enduring strategic alliance between the United States and the United Kingdom. Discussions are believed to have touched upon collaborative efforts in defense, intelligence sharing, and responses to geopolitical developments that affect both countries’ interests.
Observers note that such high-level engagements are vital for maintaining diplomatic momentum and coordinating policies on a global scale. The presence of key advisors from both sides during the meeting, as seen in released imagery, suggests a comprehensive approach to the discussions, involving various governmental departments.
Both the White House and Downing Street are expected to release more detailed statements in the coming days, outlining the outcomes of the meeting and any agreements or joint initiatives that may have been established. This week’s bilateral meeting reaffirms the steadfast relationship between the U.S. and the UK as they navigate complex international dynamics.
Jacinta, Wong, Cash Wrecks Welcome to country Virtue signalling
Photo by Blow the Truth
Canberra, ACT– A heated exchange in the Australian Senate has seen Foreign Minister Penny Wong‘s attempt to chastise Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price over her “Welcome to Country” criticism spectacularly backfire, triggering an explosive intervention from Deputy Liberal Leader Michaelia Cash. The fiery debate also reignited questions about the origins and appropriateness of the term “First Nations” within Australian discourse.
Sources from the Parliament of Australia Senate confirm that tensions flared when Senator Wong reportedly tried to “tell off” Senator Price for her outspoken views regarding the traditional “Welcome to Country” ceremonies.Senator Price has been a vocal critic, questioning their efficacy and sincerity in modern political contexts.
However, rather than defusing the situation, Wong’s intervention appears to have ignited the fury of Senator Michaelia Cash.Witnesses describe Senator Cash “erupting” in defense of Price, reportedly decrying the interaction as “virtue signalling” – a term often used to dismiss actions perceived as primarily aimed at demonstrating one’s good character rather than genuine commitment.
Adding another layer to the already contentious discussion, Senator Price’s criticism extended to the very terminology used to describe Indigenous Australians. She reportedly asserted that “‘First Nations’ isn’t even an Australian term. It’s been adopted from Canada.” This claim, made within the parliamentary setting, has sparked further debate about the evolution of language surrounding Indigenous identity in Australia.
The incident underscores the deeply divided opinions within Australian politics regarding Indigenous recognition, traditional ceremonies, and the language used to discuss these sensitive issues.
Is Jacinta Nampijinpa Price right about “First Nations” not being an Australian term?
Yes, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price is largely correct in her assertion that the term “First Nations” was adopted from Canada and is not historically an Australian term for Indigenous peoples.
While terms like “Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples” or more recently “Indigenous Australians” have been the predominant and historically accurate collective terms in Australia, “First Nations” has seen increasing usage in recent years.
Here’s a breakdown:
Canadian Origin:The term “First Nations” originated in Canada to refer to the various Indigenous peoples there (excluding Inuit and Métis, though sometimes used broadly to include them).It gained prominence in Canada from the 1970s onwards as a term of self-identification and a move away from colonial labels.
Adoption in Australia:Its adoption in Australia is a more recent phenomenon. While it is now used by some Indigenous individuals and organizations, and increasingly by government bodies and media, it is not a traditional or historically established collective term within Australia itself. Its growing use often reflects a desire for a term that emphasizes sovereignty, prior occupancy, and a collective identity, similar to its use in Canada.
Australian Context:In Australia, the preferred and most accurate terms have traditionally been specific language groups (e.g., Arrernte, Wiradjuri, Yolngu), or broader collective terms like “Aboriginal people,” “Torres Strait Islander people,” or “Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.”
So, while the term “First Nations” is nowusedin Australia, Senator Price is accurate in pointing out that its origin lies elsewhere and it was not an indigenous Australian term that developed organically within Australian historical or cultural contexts. Its increasing use represents an evolving linguistic landscape in the discussion of Indigenous identity in Australia.
WASHINGTON D.C. – Citing a national crisis of “endemic vagrancy, disorderly behaviour, sudden confrontations, and violent attacks,” President Donald J. Trump today issued a wide-ranging executive order aimed at restoring public order in American cities and overhauling the nation’s approach to homelessness.The order, which the President stated is intended to protect both the homeless and other citizens, marks a significant shift towards prioritising public safety and addressing the “root causes” of homelessness, particularly drug addiction and mental health conditions, through expanded civil commitment and stricter enforcement of urban ordinances.
The executive order comes as the White House highlights that the number of individuals living on the streets reached a record high of 274,224 during the last year of the previous administration. The President emphasised that the “overwhelming majority” of these individuals struggle with addiction, mental health issues, or both, with nearly two-thirds reporting regular use of hard drugs and an equally large share suffering from mental health conditions.
“The Federal Government and the States have spent tens of billions of dollars on failed programs that address homelessness but not its root causes, leaving other citizens vulnerable to public safety threats,” the President stated in the order. “Surrendering our cities and citizens to disorder and fear is neither compassionate to the homeless nor other citizens. My Administration will take a new approach focused on protecting public safety.”
Key Directives of the Executive Order:
Restoring Civil Commitment: The order directs the Attorney General, in consultation with the Secretary of Health and Human Services, to actively seek the reversal of federal or state judicial precedents and the termination of consent decrees that are perceived to hinder the civil commitment of individuals with mental illness who pose a risk to themselves or the public, or who are living on the streets and cannot care for themselves.The order also emphasises moving individuals who are a danger to themselves or others, or who cannot care for themselves, into treatment centers through civil commitment or other available means.
Redirecting Federal Resources: The order calls for a reevaluation of federal funding for homelessness programs.The Secretaries of Health and Human Services and Housing and Urban Development are directed to increase accountability, including ending support for “housing first” policies that “deprioritise accountability and fail to promote treatment, recovery, and self-sufficiency.” The order aims to increase competition among grantees and hold them to higher standards.
Crucially, the order states that the Attorney General will review whether recipients of federal housing and homelessness assistance who operate drug injection sites or distribute drug paraphernalia are in violation of federal law and will bring actions as appropriate.
Additionally, the order seeks to allow federally funded programs to exclusively house women and children and prevent registered sex offenders receiving homelessness assistance from being housed with unrelated children.
The executive order highlights the administration’s commitment to a more forceful and interventionist approach to addressing homelessness and public order concerns across the nation.
Juan M Soria – Guitarra, Voz y Composición
Aitor Graña – Bateria
Yulie Ruth – Bajo
Ingeniero de Grabación – Julio Berta
Asistente – Lucho “Morte” Scampamorte
Realización Audiovisual – Conurbana Audiovisual
Grabado en Romaphonic – Buenos Aires, Argentina
Mezclado y Masterizado en TucanSonic por Martin Bosa
As the search for employment increasingly moves online, particularly to platforms like Facebook, a dark side is emerging: a sharp rise in sophisticated job scams preying on hopeful job seekers. Authorities and victim support groups are issuing urgent warnings as individuals lose not only significant sums of money but also suffer profound emotional and psychological impacts.
Recent data from Scamwatch in Australia indicates a worrying trend. In the first 10 months of 2024, over 6,000 Australians reported losing $58.3 million to social media scams, with job scams contributing a substantial $4.5 million to that figure. While overall reported losses to scams saw a decline in 2023, job scams bucked the trend with a dramatic 150% increase in financial losses compared to the previous year, highlighting scammers’ evolving tactics.
The Allure and Deception
Scammers are exploiting the desire for flexible, well-paying work, often targeting vulnerable individuals, including those on low incomes, culturally and linguistically diverse communities, international students, and those seeking supplementary income. Facebook, with its vast user base and community groups, has become a fertile ground for these fraudulent schemes.
Common characteristics of these scams include:
“Too Good to Be True” Offers: Advertisements promising high salaries for minimal effort, often with no experience or qualifications required, and immediate starts.
Upfront Payment Demands: A major red flag where applicants are asked to pay for “training materials,” “equipment,” “background checks,” “application fees,” or “work permits.” Legitimate employers will never ask for payment to secure a job.
“Task-Based” or “Side Hustle” Scams: These often involve requests to “boost” product ratings, “like” social media posts, or review products, with initial small payouts to build trust before demanding larger “investments” to “level up” and earn more. These investments are never returned.
Money Mule Schemes: Victims are unknowingly recruited to transfer illicit funds through their personal bank accounts under the guise of an administrative role, making them complicit in money laundering.
Impersonation: Scammers frequently pose as legitimate companies, well-known recruitment agencies, or even high-level executives, often creating fake profiles or cloning legitimate websites and email addresses.
Lack of Proper Interview Process: Offers are often made without a formal interview or a thorough discussion of the applicant’s qualifications and experience.
Communication via Messaging Apps: Scammers often push to communicate solely through encrypted messaging apps like WhatsApp or Telegram, avoiding official company channels.
Poor Grammar and Spelling: While not always present, obvious grammatical errors and strange formatting in job ads or communications can be a warning sign.
Today, President Donald J. Trump celebrates the most successful first six months in office for any President in modern American history.
Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill, thereby delivering the largest tax cut in American history, increasing Americans’ take-home pay by as much as $13,300, and terminating benefits for at least 1.4 million illegal immigrants who were gaming the system.
Congress passed President Trump’s historic rescissions package, which will save taxpayers $9 billion in wasteful, politically-motivated funding for leftwing foreign aid scams and biased NPR and PBS.
The wholesale price of a dozen eggs is down 53%, or $3.09, since the inauguration and is down 62%, or $5.08, from its March peak.
The U.S. economy has now added a net of 671,000 jobs since January 2025, with jobs numbers beating expectations four months in a row. Native-born workers have accounted for all job gains, with native-born employment increasing 2,079,000 while foreign-born employment has fallen 543,000.
U.S. Customs and Border Patrol encountered just 6,070 illegal immigrants at the southern border in June — setting a new record low (15% lower than the previous record set in March). Additionally, zero illegal immigrants were released into the U.S. on parole in June, compared to 27,766 a year prior.
The administration has ramped up deportations, breaking a record for the number of deportation flights in a month in June. President Trump’s self-deportation push has also been a massive success. Additionally, over 600 known and suspected terrorists have been removed from the United States.
At President Trump’s direction, U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement has arrested over 100,000 illegal alien criminals, including over 2,700 members of the vicious Tren de Aragua gang.
Since President Trump took office, core inflation has tracked at just 2.1% — levels not seen since the first Trump Administration, when prices were low and stable — and has come in below or at economists’ expectations every single month. Meanwhile, wholesale inflation remained flat in June, while import prices came in far below expectations.
Summer gas prices reached their lowest point since 2021, and, inflation-adjusted, are near a 20-year low.
President Trump’s deregulatory efforts have already saved Americans over $180 billion, or $2,100 per family of four, with the rollback of automobile-related rules alone expected to save consumers more than $1.1 trillion.
President Trump secured a historic agreement for NATO members to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP – a foreign policy feat long thought impossible.
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President Trump secured ceasefires between India and Pakistan and Israel and Iran, a peace agreement between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and a pathway to stability for Syria.
As a result of his historic peacemaking efforts, President Trump has already received three Nobel Peace Prize nominations since returning to office.
In May, blue-collar wage growth saw its largest increase in nearly 60 years since President Trump’s return to office.
Companies and foreign governments have pledged over $7.6 trillion in investments into the U.S.
The U.S. Treasury has taken in nearly $90 billion in tariff duties since January 2025, with the agency posting a record $27.2 billion surplus in June – the first June surplus since 2005.
President Trump has once again proved to be the Dealmaker-in-Chief, inking a minerals deal with Ukraine, a $14 billion “perpetual Golden Share” sale of U.S. Steel, and trade deals with the United Kingdom, China, and Indonesia.
President Trump has signed over 170 executive orders, delivering on key campaign promises such as closing the border, protecting children from chemical and surgical mutilation, removing men from women’s sports, unleashing American energy, ending federal censorship, ending the radical indoctrination in K-12 schooling, and ending radical and wasteful government DEI programs and preferencing.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq market indices have reached multiple record highs.
The Supreme Court consistently bolstered the Trump administration’s agenda, blocking activist judges from issuing nationwide injunctions, permitting “third-country deportations,” greenlighting the revocation of temporary protected status (TPS) from more than 500,000 migrants and approving efforts to shrink the federal bureaucracy.
President Trump signed several pieces of landmark legislation, including the Genius Act, the Halt Fentanyl Act, the Laken Riley Act, and the Take It Down Act.
The Trump administration has made incredible strides in its effort to Make America Healthy Again, with roughly 35% of the American food industry making a commitment to eliminate the use of artificial dyes, including Hershey, Consumer Brands and dozens of ice cream companies representing more than 90% of the ice cream volume sold in the U.S.
President Trump has ensured U.S. benefit programs serve U.S. citizens, with the administration now having protected more than $40 billion in benefit programs from illegal aliens since POTUS signed an Executive Order in February “Ending Taxpayer Subsidization of Open Borders.”
President Trump inked an agreement to provide billions of dollars of military equipment to Ukraine, with NATO footing the bill.
President Trump has cracked down on international cartels, designating eight Latin American cartels as terrorist groups, including Tren de Aragua, MS-13 and the Sinaloa Cartel.
President Trump has solidified the U.S.’s position as the world leader in artificial intelligence, attracting north of $1 trillion in AI investment, including $90 billion in groundbreaking AI and energy investments in Pennsylvania.
The U.S. is on track for its lowest murder rate on record following President Trump’s reinstatement of law and order.
Following President Trump’s February executive order, universities and school systems have stopped allowing men in women’s sports, including the University of Pennsylvania, the Virginia High School League and the University of Maine System.
Hospitals and hospital systems across the country have halted so-called “gender-affirming care” for minors following President Trump’s executive order “protecting children from chemical and surgical mutilation.”
In his first six months, President Trump has met with 23 foreign leaders, including three visits from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as two visits from the NATO Secretary General — compared to thirteen foreign leaders and the UN Secretary General, the NATO Secretary General, and the Chinese Foreign Minister for Obama and just five in-person visits for Biden.
With 63% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Tasmanian state election, The Poll Bludger is projecting that the final results will give the Liberals 39.7% of the statewide vote (up 3.0% since the March 2024 election), Labor just 25.7% (down 3.1%), the Greens 14.1% (up 0.2%), the Shooters 3.2% (up 0.9%), the Nationals 1.7% and independents 15.4%.
Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system for its lower house elections. As described previously, the five seats Tasmania has at federal elections each return seven members for a total of 35 MPs. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%.
The main Poll Bludger page gives projected quotas for each electorate for the Liberals, Labor and the Greens. The Liberals have just under four quotas in Braddon, over three in Bass and Lyons and over two in Clark and Franklin, suggesting 14 definite seats with more possible.
Labor is just above or just below two quotas in all five seats, and should win ten seats. The Greens have 1.8 quotas in Clark, over one in each of Franklin, Bass and Lyons and 0.6 in Braddon, so they should win at least five seats.
Of the independents, environmental campaigner Craig Garland has 0.8 quotas in Braddon and will be re-elected. Left-wing independent Kristie Johnston has 1.3 quotas in Clark, and will also be re-elected. In Franklin, both former Labor leader David O’Byrne and Teal Peter George (0.9 and 1.3 quotas respectively) have been elected.
In Lyons, the Shooters candidate, with 0.6 quotas, is well positioned to win the final seat. In Bass, it appears more complex, but the final seat is likely to go to either the Liberals or the Shooters. None of the three former Jacqui Lambie Network MPs who won seats at the March 2024 election have been re-elected.
Overall, the right-wing parties (Liberals and Shooters) are likely to win 16 of the 35 seats, but Labor, the Greens and left-wing independents are likely to win 19 seats. So even though the Liberals will win the most seats, Labor may be able to cobble together a government, but only if they cooperate with the Greens.
This overall result assumes a 4–3 right split in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, but a 5–2 left split in both Clark and Franklin. In Franklin, the Liberals would be unlucky not to win three with 2.7 quotas, but Labor has 1.8 quotas and preferences from George should assist Labor.
Many pre-poll votes have not yet been counted, and postals won’t be counted until next week. Postals are likely to assist the Liberals. The postal effect should be accounted for by The Poll Bludger’s projections.
YouGov poll badly understated Liberals
A late YouGov poll, conducted July 7–18 from a sample of 931, gave the Liberals 31% of the statewide vote (steady since June), Labor 30% (down four), the Greens 16% (up three), the Nationals 2%, the Shooters 1% and independents 20% (up two).
A two-party vote is not applicable in Tasmania’s proportional system, but this poll gave Labor a 55–45 lead over the Liberals. Labor leader Dean Winter also led Liberal incumbent Jeremy Rockliff as better premier by 55–45. Rockliff was at -19 net approval and Winter at -13.
The only other public Tasmanian polls were conducted by DemosAU. The final DemosAU poll, which I covered on Tuesday, gave the Liberals 34.9%, Labor 24.7%, the Greens 15.6%, the Nationals 2.7%, the Shooters 1.8% and independents 20.3%.
The results show the Liberals headed for about a 14-point vote share win over Labor, so YouGov badly understated them.
Federal Bradfield legal challenge
Last Monday the Liberals challenged Teal Nicolette Boele’s 26-vote win in Bradfield at the May 3 federal election to the High Court, acting as the Court of Disputed Returns. Boele will be seated until the court resolves the case.
The court can either confirm Boele’s win, void the election for this seat and order a byelection in Bradfield, or overturn the result and declare the Liberal candidate elected.
After the official declaration of the election on June 12, the 40-day period for legal challenges to the results expires on Tuesday. Tuesday will also be the first sitting of federal parliament since the election, though it could have sat at any time after June 12.
The Bradfield challenge will delay a Labor vs Liberal two-party count in that seat until the challenge is resolved. It’s likely the Australian Electoral Commission’s (AEC) current estimate in Bradfield is understating Labor, and therefore Labor is being very slightly understated nationally.
DemosAU polls on democracy in Australia and Queensland federal
a poll on democracy and voting systems in Australia. This poll was conducted in two waves in May and June from a total sample of 1,713.
By 69–12, respondents thought Australian democracy is something to be proud of, and by 71–19 they did not think Australia needs a PM like Donald Trump. By 67–15, respondents trusted the AEC. By 53–23, they did not want the number of MPs increased.
Asked for preferred voting system in the House of Representatives, 36% selected compulsory preferential voting (CPV), 27% first past the post (FPTP), 25% optional preferential voting (OPV) and 12% proportional representation (PR).
Head to head, CPV and OPV both beat FPTP by 53–47, while CPV beat OPV by 54–46. All single-member systems were much preferred to PR.
I previously covered the Queensland state DemosAU poll. In the federal Queensland poll, Labor led by 53–47 (50.6–49.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes were 35% Labor, 31% Coalition, 13% One Nation, 12% Greens and 9% for all Others.
The law, which was expanded and made permanent by the Crisafulli Government, allows police to use hand-held scanners to detect deadly weapons in all public places.
More than 3,200 arrests under Jack’s Law and more than 5,900 charges laid.
The Crisafulli Government is delivering on making Queensland safer, with Jack’s Law now in place permanently across Queensland.
The law allows police to use hand-held metal detectors to identify and seize weapons from people in all public places, expanding the powerful crime-fighting tool.
Expanded and permanent Jack’s Law officially came into effect yesterday, following the passing of Making Jack’s Law Permanent legislation last month, expanding the powers and overturning Labor’s proposed expiry of the laws.
After a decade of Labor failure, crime escalated under weakened laws that failed to deliver consequences for actions and created a generation of repeat offenders.
Jack’s Law gives Queensland Police permanent powers to “wand” for weapons anywhere in Queenslandwhere knife crime may be a risk, helping get more weapons off the streets and saving lives.
The law is named in honour of 17-year-old Jack Beasley, who was fatally stabbed in Surfers Paradise in 2019. Since then, his parents Brett and Belinda have campaigned tirelessly to make Queensland safer.
Last night Police Minister Dan Purdie joined Brett and Belinda Beasley and local officers in Burleigh where, for the first time, police were able to use hand-held scanners outside of prescribed places.
Jack’s Law has already resulted in:
122,548 people scanned
1,190 weapons removed
3,248 people arrested
5,932 charges laid.
Minister for Police and Emergency Services Dan Purdie said the expanded powers were about backing police and honouring the legacy of Jack Beasley.
“Today is about action, not words,” Minister Purdie said.
“Jack’s Law is now permanent, and police can use these scanners across the State, not just in Safe Night Precincts and other previously prescribed places.
“This is about giving police the tools they need to detect and deter knife crime, and prevent more families from living through the heartbreak the Beasleys have endured.”
Brett Beasley said the implementation of the expanded laws marked a major milestone.
“We made a promise to Jack that we’d make sure something good came from this tragedy, and now, thanks to this law, lives will be saved,” Mr Beasley said.
“We’ll never know whose life is saved because someone was caught with a knife before they could use it, but that’s the power of this law. It works.”
Belinda Beasley said the expansion meant Jack’s legacy will live on.
“Jack’s Law is for every young person and every family who deserves to feel safe,” Mrs Beasley said.
“We’re incredibly grateful to the police, and to the Crisafulli Government that has listened and acted.”
Brisbane, QLD – July 15, 2025 – The Crisafulli Government today announced a landmark Commission of Inquiry into the Queensland branch of the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union (CFMEU). This decisive action follows the explosive ‘Violence in the Queensland CFMEU’ report by Geoffrey Watson SC, which exposed a disturbing culture of systemic violence, intimidation, misogyny, and bullying within the union.
The newly established Commission of Inquiry will be armed with significant powers, including the ability to compel documents and witnesses and deliver crucial protections for those who testify. This aims to overcome the significant hurdles faced by the initial Watson report, where many critical witnesses and victims feared retribution, leading to only 55 people being interviewed over three months.
Deepening the Investigation: Beyond the Surface
The Watson report, which lifted the lid on the underbelly of Queensland’s construction industry, damningly found that the CFMEU’s “campaign of violence” was likely planned and directed by the union’s former secretary Michael Ravbar and assistant secretary Jade Ingham against workers, women, and children.
Mr. Watson himself expressed concern that his investigation only “scratched the surface” of the violence, stating, “There are many other potential witnesses and many other stories which could have been told.” He also highlighted an “obstinate refusal to co-operate from some critical witnesses with connections to the CFMEU,” noting a “widespread memory loss” among officials. A key factor hindering cooperation was the unresolved CFMEU constitutional challenge to the administration, with potential witnesses reluctant to come forward while Michael Ravbar and Jade Ingham’s reinstatement was a possibility.
The Crisafulli Government has already referred the Watson report to the Queensland Police Service for their consideration.
Inflation Continues to Ease, But Uncertainties Linger for Australian Economy
Australia’s inflation continues its downward trend, significantly moderating since its 2022 peak, as higher interest rates work to bring economic demand and supply back into equilibrium. However, the path ahead remains uncertain, with global complexities and domestic nuances creating a cautious outlook.
In the March quarter, headline inflation — partially softened by temporary cost-of-living relief — landed squarely within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range. Trimmed mean inflation, a key underlying measure, registered at 2.9 per cent. The RBA’s May forecast projected underlying inflation to gradually cool further, aiming for the midpoint of the 2-3 per cent target range, anticipating a measured easing of the cash rate.
While recent monthly CPI Indicator data suggests June quarter inflation is likely to align with forecasts, it was “at the margin, slightly stronger than expected,” according to the RBA. With the cash rate 50 basis points lower than five months ago and broader economic conditions evolving largely as anticipated, the RBA Board opted to await further data to confirm inflation’s sustained trajectory towards 2.5 per cent.
Global Headwinds and Domestic Resilience
The global economic landscape remains fraught with uncertainty. The full impact of US tariffs and potential policy responses from other nations is still unknown, though financial markets have shown some rebound amid hopes that the most extreme outcomes will be avoided. Nevertheless, trade policy developments are still expected to exert a negative influence on global economic activity, and there’s a lingering risk that households and businesses may postpone spending until greater clarity emerges.
Domestically, private demand appears to be on a gradual recovery path. Real household incomes have seen an uptick, and some indicators of financial stress have eased. Despite this, businesses in certain sectors report ongoing weakness in demand, making it challenging to pass on cost increases to consumers.
Tight Labor Market, Productivity Woes Meanwhile, the labour market remains tight. Measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low levels, and business surveys consistently indicate that labour availability continues to be a constraint for many employers. While wage growth has softened from its peak, productivity growth has not kept pace, resulting in continued high growth in unit labour costs.
The outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation is subject to various uncertainties. March quarter national accounts confirmed that domestic demand has been picking up over the past six months, with May forecasts predicting continued growth in household consumption as real incomes rise. However, there’s a risk that this pick-up could be slower than anticipated, potentially leading to subdued aggregate demand and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently projected. Conversely, leading indicators suggest that labour market outcomes could prove stronger than expected.
Further uncertainties surround the time lag of recent monetary policy easing and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will react to the balance of demand and supply, tight labour market conditions, and persistent weak productivity.
Prioritising Stability Amidst Caution
The RBA Board maintains that the risks to inflation have become more balanced, and the labour market remains robust. Nevertheless, it remains cautious about the outlook, especially given the heightened uncertainty surrounding both aggregate demand and supply. The Board’s decision to wait for more information underscores its commitment to ensuring inflation is sustainably on track to reach 2.5 per cent. The RBA also noted its readiness to respond decisively to international developments if they were to significantly impact Australian activity and inflation.
The Board will continue to closely monitor incoming data and evolving risk assessments to guide its decisions, paying particular attention to the global economy, financial markets, domestic demand trends, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The RBA remains steadfast in its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment, pledging to take all necessary measures to achieve these outcomes.
In a move towards increased transparency, the RBA Board has decided to publish an unattributed record of votes in its post-meeting statement. Today’s policy decision was made by majority, with six members voting in favour and three against.
