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Secretary Blinken, 30 NATO Allies remain committed to supporting a sovereign Ukraine.

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Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State Berlin, Germany

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  Good afternoon.  It’s a great pleasure to be back in Europe to continue intensive coordination with allies and partners on some of the most urgent issues facing our countries, and that begins with today’s NATO meetings.  And I want to especially thank Secretary General Stoltenberg for his leadership, the deputy secretary general of NATO, and especially Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of Germany – not only for hosting us, but for taking initiative to bring the foreign ministers together in an informal but very productive series of discussions.

The 30 NATO Allies remain fully engaged, aligned, committed to supporting a democratic, independent, and sovereign Ukraine.  The world has seen the strength and resilience of the Ukrainian people these past three months.  It’s seen the unity at the heart of NATO.  President Putin launched this brutal and unprovoked war thinking he could eliminate Ukraine as an independent country and divide NATO.  Instead, he’s only reinforced Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence as Ukraine has chased the Russian army away from Kyiv.  NATO is stronger, more capable, more unified than ever.

Every member of the Alliance wants to bring this war to an end as soon as possible, but we’re equally determined to maintain our security assistance to Ukraine, to continue our sanctions, export controls, and diplomatic pressure on Russia for as long as it’s necessary.  The United States and our allies and partners are focused on giving Ukraine as strong a hand as possible on the battlefield, and at any negotiating table, so that it can repel Russian aggression and fully defend its independence and sovereignty.

We’ve marshaled a robust transatlantic response to the humanitarian crisis caused by the war – more than 6 million Ukrainians have fled their homeland.  They’ve been welcomed in countries across Europe and across the Atlantic.  The United States has provided millions of dollars in assistance to countries taking in Ukrainian citizens to help provide essential support and services.  Our countries are also coming together to address some of the broader consequences that are flowing from Russia’s aggression, like the global food shortages and rising food prices that we’re seeing.  Ukraine supplies a great deal of the world’s corn, its wheat, its oil seeds for cooking oil.

Russia is blocking Ukraine’s ports; it’s destroying its farmland, warehouses, roads, equipment.  That’s not only striking a major blow to Ukraine’s economy, but it’s also designed to inflict pain on the rest of the world to weaken support to the Ukrainian people.  Later this week in New York, we will be convening an emergency session of the UN Security Council and also the foreign ministers to focus on the steps that we can take together to address the immediate challenges for food and to address food insecurity, as well as to look at some of the medium-term and longer-term answers to food insecurity.

We don’t know how the rest of this world – war – excuse me – will unfold.  But we know that a sovereign and independent Ukraine will endure.  And we know that in supporting Ukraine we’re also defending the principles of sovereignty and independence that are foundational to global peace and security.  Our partnership with the people of Ukraine is enduring as well.  American diplomats have returned to Ukraine after several weeks working out of Poland.  We’re reopening our Embassy in Kyiv – we’re taking all necessary precautions, but that work is underway – and we will resume operations very soon.

President Biden recently nominated Bridget Brink to serve as our next ambassador to Ukraine. She’s an outstanding veteran diplomat.  We hope the Senate will move quickly to confirm her, just as we hope Congress will move quickly to pass the $40 billion supplemental funding bill to ensure that our ability to provide assistance to Ukraine is not interrupted.

This morning I had an opportunity to meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba, part of what is an ongoing conversation with him on the phone, in person, whenever we have an opportunity to actually see each other.  And I conveyed to him again our commitment – unwavering commitment – to Ukraine.  NATO’s unified response, which we affirmed once more today, will continue.  Allies were joined here in Berlin by the foreign ministers from Sweden and Finland.  Both countries are close and valued defense partners of NATO and the United States.  And the United States would strongly support a NATO application by either Sweden or Finland should they choose to formally apply to the Alliance.  We’ll respect whatever decision they make.  And we’ve long supported NATO’s Open Door policy and the right of all countries to decide their own futures, their policies, their security arrangements.

We also spent time here in Berlin laying the groundwork for next month’s summit in Madrid. NATO is going to release its new Strategic Concept laying out how the Alliance will sustain and strengthen transatlantic security in the face of President Putin’s aggression as well as other emerging threats.  And we’ll look ahead to our continuing efforts to fortify our force posture on NATO’s eastern flank and to strengthen our defense partnerships beyond the region – for example, with Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, all of which will be represented in Madrid.

Finally, from here we’ll be traveling to Paris to attend the second ministerial meeting of the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council.  President Biden’s initiative to align some of the world’s largest economies on the most important trade and tech issues of the day is bearing very significant fruit and delivering real results.  Together we’re working to shape norms and set standards on emerging technology, build more diverse and resilient supply chains, coordinate our approaches to export controls and investment screening mechanisms, acting together to stop unfair trade practices that harm our workers and our companies.  The TTC has already proven highly useful for facilitating U.S.-EU cooperation – for example, on the swift imposition of export controls on Russia after it invaded Ukraine.  I’m very much looking forward to our meetings in Paris and continuing to deepen what is an abiding partnership between the United States and the European Union.

And with that, happy to take some questions.

MS ALLEN:  First question will be from Ellie Kaufman of CNN.

QUESTION:  Mr. Secretary, did you have a chance to speak with your Turkish counterpart today?  Will they allow Sweden and Finland to move forward with the process of applying to NATO membership?  And if not, did they express what their concerns are to you?

And on another issue, is the U.S. going to send any U.S. personnel to the West Bank to investigate the killing Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, an American citizen?  Also, you spoke with a member of her family.  Who did you speak with and what was conveyed to you?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  Thank you.  Second part first:  We support an investigation of Shireen’s killing.  I had an opportunity to speak to – directly to her brother, Anton.  I believe other members of the family were on the phone and listening in.  I had a chance to express our deep condolences for her loss, our deep respect for the work that she did as a journalist for many years – widely respected around the world – as well as the need to have an immediate and credible investigation into the circumstances surrounding her death.

Here in Berlin, yes, I did have a chance to talk to my Turkish counterpart, the foreign minister.  When it comes to Sweden and Finland and their potential accession to NATO, this is a process.  And NATO is a place for dialogue; it’s a place for discussion.  It’s a place for talking about any differences that that we may have.  I don’t want to characterize the specific conversation that we had either with the foreign minister or within the NATO sessions themselves, but I can say this much:  I heard, almost across the board, very strong support for Finland and NATO joining the Alliance if that’s what they choose to do.  And I’m very confident that we will reach consensus on that.

MS ALLEN:  The next question is from Annmarie Hordern of Bloomberg.

QUESTION:  Thank you, Mr. Secretary.  First question:  We heard from the Turkish foreign minister about what they would like in terms of the prospect of the prospective NATO members of Finland and Sweden.  And part of that is about – they say that those members should not impose export bans.  So is Turkey asking the United States and its allies to lift export bans specifically on weapons, and is that something the U.S. is even willing to discuss?  And given the fact that this has now become a negotiation, aren’t you worried that the Open Door policy is potentially now going to become a negotiation tactic for any future prospective members?

And you were also here meeting with your European counterparts.  You know the EU is at the moment trying to get a European oil ban on Russia.  Every single day Putin is funding his war with tens of millions of dollars being made by exports of fossil fuels.  Are you worried that if Europe is unable to come to this agreement, it is going to damage this alliance and also just further this war?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  Thank you.  I’ll just repeat what I said about Turkey.  I had an opportunity to talk to the foreign minister.  We had a conversation about this in the context of the NATO meetings, which I’m not going to characterize beyond saying that there is very strong consensus for bringing Finland and Sweden into the Alliance if they choose to formally apply.  And as to the differences between Turkey, Finland, and Sweden that have been talked about, there’s an ongoing conversation, and the bottom line is this:  When it comes to the membership process, I am very confident that we will reach consensus.

Second, with regard to energy, that was actually not a focus of our conversations today.  But we very much support the efforts that Europe, the European Union is making to wean itself off of Russian energy, whether that’s oil or ultimately gas.  This is a reliance that’s been built up over many, many decades.  It’s not going to end overnight, but Europe is clearly on track to move decisively in that direction.  And we very much support the European Union’s efforts to put in place an embargo on the importation of Russian oil.  That process is for the European Union to pursue.

As this is happening, the United States has taken a number of steps to help.  And so for example, to the extent that there are any gaps that result in the energy that Europe is getting, we have already redirected significant supplies of liquefied natural gas to Europe.  The President’s committed to continuing to do that throughout the rest of the year – at the same time to make sure that there is bountiful energy on world markets and also to try to ensure that price hikes that have resulted from Putin’s aggression in Ukraine are evaded and kept under control.  The – we initiated a historic release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – a million barrels a day over six months.  That was matched by a number of countries through the International Energy Agency. And of course, we established a task force with the European Union to work on these very issues.  That task force is actively engaged as we speak.

QUESTION:  But can I just – just – the question really is about the fact that Hungary is putting a lot of hurdles in the way to get to this point.  And when you and your allies speak, it’s always about this unity, but clearly there’s not.  So if they’re not able to get to an end agreement on oil, doesn’t that just show that there is a lot of divisions in this so-called unity the United States has with the Europeans?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  So it’s interesting.  With the – I guess the benefit of just a little distance from events, this has been going on for many months now – Russia’s mounting aggression, then its aggression, and the response from countries around the world, but principally the United States and Europe, the most immediately concerned with that aggression in Ukraine.  And throughout this process, at virtually every turn, we’ve said that we were going to do X, Y, and Z.  Skepticism was expressed from various quarters about our ability to do that, and yet, we’ve done it.  We said from the get-go that if Russia pursued its aggression against Ukraine, there’d be massive consequences for Russia, including unprecedented sanctions.  A number of people said: oh, that’s not going to happen.  Well, it did.  There have been massive consequences and we have unleashed truly unprecedented sanctions.

Many said that certain countries, certain partners wouldn’t go along with various sections, and yet, they did.  At other stages, people said that the European Union or European countries would not, for example, provide lethal defensive assistance to Ukraine, and yet, they have.  At virtually every stage of the process of implementing – deciding on and implementing new sanctions, there have been those who said: oh, they’re not going to do it; it’s too hard; there’s not consensus.  And yet, they did, and they have.

So I think the lesson from the last six months is that we have seen unprecedented unity.  We have seen unprecedented action.  And I’m very convinced that that’s going to continue as long as Russia’s aggression does.

MS ALLEN:  Last question comes from Thomas – I want to make sure I get his name right.

QUESTION:  Thanks – yeah, it’s Thomas Gutschker with Frankfurter —

MS ALLEN:  Thomas Gutschker from FAZ.  Thanks so much.

QUESTION:  That’s correct.  Thanks for taking my question.  It’s about the Strategic Concept and the discussion you are having on that.  Some allies are now saying they see the future of relations with Russia in the framework of containment.  Do you think that is the right term, the right concept to frame future relations with Russia?  And somewhat related to this, do you see any more reason to keep up the NATO-Russia Founding Act?  I know so far NATO has said Russia has walked away.  NATO has also said it’s not restricting anything that’s going on right now.  But of course, the next step could be to simply say: we also walk away from it; we no longer consider this to be a viable document.  What’s the U.S. position on that?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  Thank you.  A lot of these issues will be fully discussed and fully elaborated on at the NATO Summit in Madrid in June.  And much of the work that we were doing today was in furtherance of that Summit and the work the leaders will bring to conclusion, including the Strategic Concept.  So I don’t want to get into any detail about that; everything is being drafted as we speak.  There were very positive and substantial inputs to that drafting process over the last couple of days, and I’d say we had a very good discussion about it.

At the heart of NATO and at the heart of the Strategic Concept is the notion of defense and deterrence.  That’s what bring – brought the Alliance together in the first place, and that includes with regard to deterring and defending against any aggression from Russia.  I can say with confidence that that will be fully reflected in the Strategic Concept.  Beyond that, let me leave it to the Summit, to the leaders to describe in more detail how the Alliance sees its relationship with Russia going forward.  That will be something that will be, I think, fully aired at the Summit in Madrid.  Thank you.

Thank you.  Thanks, everyone.


Source: US State Department under Creative Commons

Morrison tells Liberal launch ‘I’m just warming up as he pitches on home ownership

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PM Scott Morrison and Family
 View from The Hill: Scott Morrison tells Liberal launch ‘I’m just warming up’, as he pitches on home ownership
 THE CONVERSATION 

When he mounted the stage as a warm-up speaker at Sunday’s Liberal launch, Josh Frydenberg received a reception beyond the obligatory enthusiasm required of the handpicked party faithful at these affairs.

“Wow – I wish I got that reception in Kooyong,” the deputy Liberal leader and treasurer quipped.

Frydenberg, fighting a desperate battle to survive against the teal invasion in his Melbourne seat, had already been on ABC Insiders with a defence of Scott Morrison, and various government policies, that wouldn’t do him much good with his local voters.

It might have been all hands to the wheel for launch day, but the Brisbane gathering failed to project the image of a party on the verge of defying the odds to score a triumph.

Morrison’s message was that he and the government had seen the country successfully through the pandemic, and now he had plenty of ideas for the future.

He’d already told us he won’t be such a bulldozer if he wins again, though it’s unlikely people will be convinced we’d get the purring engine of a Mercedes.

In his overlong Sunday speech (about 50 minutes) with too much detail, Morrison thanked his audience for their patience, “but as you can see, I’ve got a big plan. I’m seeking a second term because I’m just warming up.”

Outlining the government’s achievements during COVID, Morrison said: “Not everything went to plan but, you know, when it didn’t, and while others were criticising, we just worked feverishly to turn it around and make up the ground. What followed was the largest economic and public health response in Australia’s history.”

At the start of the pandemic, “We stood on the edge of an abyss.”

“We now stand on a different edge […] One where fear doesn’t dominate, but aspiration. […] We stand on the edge of a new era of opportunity.”  

The launch’s policy centrepiece – allowing first home buyers to access up to 40% of their superannuation, to a maximum of $50,000 – is likely to be popular.

It acknowledges housing affordability as a big issue with many people, and also contrasts with Labor’s offering of the government taking a slice of ownership to help some people into homes.

There’s been a good deal of pressure to allow first home buyers to access their super. When the government allowed people to dip into this asset to cushion them through the pandemic that was welcomed by many.

But there is the counter argument that it is desirable to keep super savings intact for their purpose – to provide for retirement. The government’s partial answer is that the money (with a portion of any capital gain) would have to be put back into super if the house was sold.

And critics will point to another issue. By helping on the demand side, the scheme may drive prices higher. The central problem is on the supply side, but solutions to that lie mainly with state governments rather than the federal government.

Morrison did unveil a modest measure on supply – reducing from 60 (which is coming in July 1) to 55 the age at which “downsizers” can make contributions to superannuation of up to $300,000 per person from the proceeds of a sale.

Pensioners would also have longer (two years instead of one) to restructure their assets after selling their home, without affecting their pension.
 
The opposition immediately matched the empty nesters and pensioner initiatives.

But Labor predictably rejected the plan for dipping into super. Former prime minister Paul Keating denounced it, as a “frontal assault” on the superannuation system.

“The superannuation taxation concessions exist solely to produce a retirement income for people. Its key is preservation. Accumulated funds preserved to age 60 so working people secure the power and benefit of compounding,” Keating said in a statement.

The government immediately circulated Labor’s 1993 election housing policy, which undertook to “allow all home buyers to fund up to 49% of the deposit for a home from their accumulated superannuation savings.”

What’s old is new again, as often happens with political promises.

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Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Over the last 30 years, a fifth of polls have called the wrong winner. Here are 3 things poll-watchers need to understand

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With voting already underway, and the sausage sizzle less than two weeks away, there are three things worth knowing if you are trying to work out which side is most likely to win:

  • the likely result in terms of the two-party preferred vote
  • the record of the electoral pendulum, based on the two-party preferred vote, in predicting election outcomes, and
  • the record of the opinion polls in predicting how far the electoral pendulum is likely to swing.

Here’s how are they used together to predict a result.

The two-party-preferred

The two-party preferred vote (which compares Labor and the Coalition) combines the first preferences with second or other preferences.

If Labor wins 51%, the Coalition wins 49%, and vice versa; the numbers always add up to 100.

But the two-party preferred, on its own, is not enough to predict the outcome of the election. You also need to get your head around the electoral pendulum.

The electoral pendulum

Devised by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras in 1972, the pendulum lists the seats held by Labor and the Coalition in ascending order of their two-party preferred results.

There are various versions of the electoral pendulum online, but the ABC’s is regarded as definitive.

The 2022 pendulum is based on the results of the 2019 election, adjusted for subsequent changes in electoral boundaries in Victoria and WA.

Nominate a national two-party preferred vote, and the pendulum promises to predict each side’s share of the seats.

True, this promise has been fulfilled only twice in the 19 elections held since 1972.

But it’s usually quite close; at four elections it has fallen short by only one seat, and at eight by no more than two or three. Not a bad record.

More importantly, the pendulum has only twice failed to predict which side would form government:

  • in 1998, when Labor won 51% of the two-party preferred result but got 12 fewer seats than the pendulum predicted, a result that allowed John Howard to survive; and
  • in 2010, when the Coalition won 49.9% of the two-party preferred – enough, on the pendulum, for an Abbott victory – only to see Labor bag five more seats than the pendulum anticipated, allowing Julia Gillard to form a minority Labor government.

As 2010 illustrates, the side that gets more than half the votes won’t necessarily get more than half the seats. Rather, the pendulum works off the margins by which seats are held.

At this election, Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.

How big a challenge is that? Since the war, there have been 29 elections. Labor increased its share of the two-party preferred vote in 13.

But in only six did it do so by 3.3 percentage points or more, and in only four did it do so by 4.5 points or more (the swing required for it to pick up a two-party preferred result of 53%). Not Mount Everest, but not a stroll in park.

The last time there was a swing to Labor of this magnitude was in 2007.

A two-party vote of 54% suggested by recent polls – a 5.5-point swing – is something Labor has only achieved once since the war. That was in 1969, off a much lower base (a two-party vote of 43.1% not 48.5%, Labor’s two-party vote in 2019).

So, what to make of current polls?

Labor currently enjoys a two-party preferred vote of about 54% in the polls; this translates to a gain of 17 seats on the pendulum.

A two-party preferred result of 53% would, in theory, yield just 10 seats – three more than the seven it needs to form government.

A two-party preferred result of 57%, reported by the latest Ipsos poll, would produce a Labor gain of 30 seats.

According to Sportsbet on Monday morning, punters are expecting a Labor two-party preferred result of 51.6% and a gain of the seven seats it needs, with the Coalition expected to lose another three to independents.

Current doubts about the polls’ accuracy have focused on their 2019 failure, with all of them getting it wrong and by the similar margins.

But over the past 30 years, a fifth of all the polls have called the wrong winner.

More importantly, from 1993 to 2010, the polls median error in calculating the winner’s lead was almost two percentage points.

On a median error of this size, a 54-46 lead in the polls might really be a lead of six (53-47) or ten (55-45), if the polls were entirely accurate.

Similarly, if the polls narrow, a lead of 53-47 could turn out to be a lead of 52-48 or a lead of 54-46.

Errors of this size could make a big difference.

An element of uncertainty

Before the votes are counted, the two-party preferred vote can only be a guesstimate.

In a close contest, even a smaller error could make the difference between:

  • a hung parliament in which the Coalition formed government (unlikely this time)
  • a hung parliament in which Labor formed government (a more likely outcome)
  • a parliament in which Labor commanded a majority in its own right (the outcome to which all the polls are pointing).

History suggests the polls could easily be over-estimating Labor’s two-party preferred; the chances that they are underestimating it are low.

While each of these considerations are important, as we try to work out what’s likely to happen, each involves an element of uncertainty.

Of course, uncertainty is part of life. Maybe you’ll get a good sausage sandwich when you turn up to vote, and maybe you won’t.

Murray Goot, Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

RBA Reserve Bank Raises Cash Rate to 0.35%

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Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the cash rate target at 10 basis points and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at zero per cent.

Inflation has increased sharply in many parts of the world. Ongoing supply-side problems, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and strong demand as economies recover from the pandemic are all contributing to the upward pressure on prices. In response, bond yields have risen and expectations of future policy interest rates have increased.

The Australian economy remains resilient and spending is picking up following the Omicron setback. Household and business balance sheets are in generally good shape, an upswing in business investment is underway and there is a large pipeline of construction work to be completed. Macroeconomic policy settings also remain supportive of growth and national income is being boosted by higher commodity prices. At the same time, rising prices are putting pressure on household budgets and the floods are causing hardship for many communities.

The strength of the Australian economy is evident in the labour market, with the unemployment rate falling further to 4 per cent in February. Underemployment is also at its lowest level in many years. Job vacancies and job ads are at high levels and point to continuing strong growth in employment over the months ahead. The RBA’s central forecast is for the unemployment rate to fall to below 4 per cent this year and to remain below 4 per cent next year.

Wages growth has picked up, but, at the aggregate level, is only around the relatively low rates prevailing before the pandemic. There are, however, some areas where larger wage increases are occurring. Given the tightness of the labour market, a further pick-up in aggregate wages growth and broader measures of labour costs is in prospect. This pick-up is still expected to be only gradual, although there is uncertainty about the behaviour of labour costs at historically low levels of unemployment.

Inflation has increased in Australia, but it remains lower than in many other countries; in underlying terms, inflation is 2.6 per cent and in headline terms it is 3.5 per cent. Higher prices for petrol and other commodities will result in a further lift in inflation over coming quarters, with an updated set of forecasts to be published in May. The main sources of uncertainty relate to the speed of resolution of the various supply-side issues, developments in global energy markets and the evolution of overall labour costs.

Financial conditions in Australia continue to be highly accommodative. Interest rates remain at a very low level, although fixed mortgage rates for new loans have risen recently. The Australian dollar exchange rate has appreciated due to the higher commodity prices and, in TWI terms, is around the level of a year ago. Housing prices have risen strongly over the past year, although some housing markets have eased recently. With interest rates at historically low levels, it is important that lending standards are maintained and that borrowers have adequate buffers.

The Board’s policies during the pandemic have supported progress towards the objectives of full employment and inflation consistent with the target. The Board has wanted to see actual evidence that inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range before it increases interest rates. Inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected, but growth in labour costs has been below rates that are likely to be consistent with inflation being sustainably at target. Over coming months, important additional evidence will be available to the Board on both inflation and the evolution of labour costs. The Board will assess this and other incoming information as its sets policy to support full employment in Australia and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.

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4 May 2022 +0.25 0.35

RBA Material is provided under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0 Licence) and may be used in accordance with the terms of that licence. 

White House Celebrates Lesbian Day of Visibility

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Lesbian Day of Visabilty

White House Media: Celebration of Lesbian Day of Visibility, the White House hosted a roundtable conversation with trailblazing lesbian and LGBTQI+ senior leaders from the White House and the broader Biden-Harris Administration. The roundtable included lesbian and queer advocates, community leaders, leaders across the federal government, several of whom are the first out lesbians to hold their position, including Ambassador Chantale Wong, Director of the Asian Development Bank, who is the first out lesbian to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate to an ambassador post; Admiral Rachel Levine, Assistant Secretary for Health, who is a lesbian and the first openly transgender woman to achieve the rank the four-star admiral in any of the country’s uniformed services; White House Deputy Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre; and Deputy White House Communications Director Pili Tobar. The roundtable was convened by White House Gender Policy Council Director Jennifer Klein. 

White House Lesbian day
White House Lesbian Day


Participants discussed the unique barriers and challenges faced by lesbians and LGBTQI+ women, including barriers to health equity and reproductive justice; the impacts of anti-LGBTQI+ state legislation on the mental health and wellbeing of lesbian and LGBTQI+ girls; the effects of isolation and discrimination on lesbian older adults; and the economic justice and housing issues impacting lesbian women and couples. Participants highlighted that lesbians who are also women and girls of color, transgender women, women with disabilities, and older women face additional intersecting challenges to achieving economic security and full inclusion. Administration officials highlighted the actions the Biden Administration has taken to advance equity and visibility for lesbians and other LGBTQI+ women and reaffirmed the President’s commitment to full equality for all lesbians and LGBTQI+ women and girls. 

External participants included:

  • Charlotte Clymer, Transgender Activist, Military Veteran, and Board Member, LPAC Action Network
  • Desireé Luckey, Director of Policy, Unite for Reproductive and Gender Equity (URGE)
  • Dr. Imani Woody, Founder and CEO, Mary’s House for Older Adults
  • Joanne N. Smith, President and CEO, Girls for Gender Equity (GGE)







Vladimir Putin meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres

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Putin Meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
Photo: The Kremlin, Moscow


President of Russia Vladimir Putin
: Mr Secretary-General,

I am very happy to see you.

As one of the founders of the United Nations and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia has always supported this universal organisation. We believe the UN is not simply universal but it is unique in a way – the international community does not have another organisation like it. We are doing all we can to support the principles on which it rests, and we intend to continue doing this in the future.

We find the expression of some of our colleagues about a world based on rules somewhat strange. We believe the main rule is the UN Charter and other documents adopted by this organisation rather than some papers written by their authors as they see fit or aimed at ensuring their own interests.

We are also surprised to hear statements by our colleagues that imply that some in the world have exceptional status or can claim exclusive rights because the Charter of the United Nations reads that all participants in international communication are equal regardless of their strength, size or geographical location. I think this is similar to what the Bible reads about all people being equal. I am sure we will find the same idea in both the Quran and the Torah. All people are equal before God. So, the idea that someone can claim a kind of exceptional status is very strange to us.

We are living in a complicated world, and, therefore, we proceed from reality and are willing to work with everyone.

No doubt, at one time the United Nations was established to resolve acute crises and went through different periods in its development. Quite recently, just several years ago, we heard it had become obsolete, and there was no need for it anymore. This happened whenever it prevented someone from reaching their goals in the international arena.

We have always said that there is no other universal organisation like the United Nations, and it is necessary to cherish the institutions that were created after WWII for the express purpose of settling disputes.

I know about your concern over Russia’s military operation in Donbass, in Ukraine. I think this will be the focus of our conversation today. I would just like to note in this context that the entire problem emerged after a coup d’état staged in Ukraine in 2014. This is an obvious fact. You can call it whatever name you like and have whatever bias in favour of those who did it, but this was really an anti-constitutional coup.

This was followed by the situation with the expression of their will by the residents of Crimea and Sevastopol. They acted in practically the same way as the people living in Kosovo – they made a decision on independence and then turned to us with a request to join the Russian Federation. The only difference between the two cases was that in Kosovo this decision on sovereignty was adopted by Parliament whereas Crimea and Sevastopol made it at a nationwide referendum.

A similar problem emerged in south-eastern Ukraine, where the residents of several territories, at least, two Ukrainian regions, did not accept the coup d’état and its results. But they were subjected to very strong pressure, in part, with the use of combat aviation and heavy military equipment. This is how the crisis in Donbass, in south-eastern Ukraine, emerged.

As you know, after another failed attempt by the Kiev authorities to resolve this problem by force, we arrived at the signing of agreements in the city of Minsk. This is what they were called – the Minsk Agreements. It was an attempt to settle the situation in Donbass peacefully.

To our regret, during the past eight years the people that lived there found themselves under a siege. The Kiev authorities announced in public that they were organising a siege of these territories. They were not embarrassed to call it a siege although initially they had renounced this idea and continued military pressure.

Under the circumstances, after the authorities in Kiev actually went on record as saying – I would like to emphasise that the top state officials announced this in public – that they did not intend to fulfil the Minsk Agreements, we were compelled to recognise these regions as independent and sovereign states to prevent the genocide of the people living there. I would like to reiterate: this was a forced measure to stop the suffering of the people living in those territories.

Unfortunately, our colleagues in the West preferred to ignore all this. After we recognised the independence of these states, they asked us to render them military aid because they were subjected to military actions, an armed aggression. In accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, Chapter VII, we were forced to do this by launching a special military operation.

I would like to inform you that although the military operation is underway, we are still hoping to reach an agreement on the diplomatic track. We are conducting talks. We have not abandoned them.

Moreover, at the talks in Istanbul, and I know that you have just been there since I spoke with President Erdogan today, we managed to make an impressive breakthrough. Our Ukrainian colleagues did not link the requirements for Ukraine’s international security with such a notion as Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders, leaving aside Crimea, Sevastopol and the newly Russia-recognised Donbass republics, albeit with certain reservations.

But, unfortunately, after reaching these agreements and after we had, in my opinion, clearly demonstrated our intentions to create the conditions for continuing the talks, we faced a provocation in the town of Bucha, which the Russian Army had nothing to do with. We know who was responsible, who prepared this provocation, using what means, and we know who the people involved were.

After this, the position of our negotiators from Ukraine on a further settlement underwent a drastic change. They simply renounced their previous intentions to leave aside issues of security guarantees for the territories of Crimea, Sevastopol and the Donbass republics. They simply renounced this. In the relevant draft agreement presented to us, they simply stated in two articles that these issues must be resolved at a meeting of the heads of state.

It is clear to us that if we take these issues to the heads of state level without even resolving them in a preliminary draft agreement, they will never be resolved. In this case, we simply cannot sign a document on security guarantees without settling the territorial issues of Crimea, Sevastopol and the Donbass republics.

Nevertheless, the talks are going on. They are now being conducted online. I am still hoping that this will lead us to some positive result.

This is all I wanted to say in the beginning. I am sure we will have many questions linked with this situation. Maybe there will be other questions as well. We will talk.

I am very happy to see you. Welcome to Moscow.

(In his remarks, the UN Secretary General expressed concern over the situation in Ukraine, while emphasising the need for a multilateral world order based on the UN Charter and international law. Antonio Guterres also presented the two proposals he had put forward the same day during his meeting with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. These proposals concern humanitarian matters, including humanitarian corridors, in particular, for Mariupol residents, as well as setting up a humanitarian contact group in which the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA), the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Russia, and Ukraine would work together to discuss the situation in order to make these corridors truly safe and effective.)

Vladimir Putin: Mr Secretary General,

Regarding the invasion, I am well-versed in the documents of the International Court on the situation in Kosovo. In fact, I have read them myself. I remember very well the decision by the International Court, which states that when fulfilling its right to self-determination a territory within any state does not have to seek permission from the country’s central government in order to proclaim its sovereignty. This was the ruling on Kosovo, and this is what the International Court decided, and everyone supported it. I personally read all the comments issued by the judicial, administrative and political bodies in the United States and Europe – everyone supported this decision.

If so, the Donbass republics, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, can enjoy the same right without seeking permission from Ukraine’s central government and declare their sovereignty, since the precedent has been created.

Is this so? Do you agree with this?

(Antonio Guterres noted that the United Nations did not recognise Kosovo).

Vladimir Putin: Yes, of course, but the court did. Let me finish what I was saying.

If there is a precedent, the Donbass republics can do the same. This is what they did, while we, in turn, had the right to recognise them as independent states.

Many countries around the world did this, including our Western opponents, with Kosovo. Many states recognised Kosovo. It is a fact that many Western countries recognised Kosovo as an independent state. We did the same with the Donbass republics. After that, they asked us to provide them with military assistance to deal with the state that launched military operations against them. We had the right to do so in full compliance with Chapter VII, Article 51 of the UN Charter.

Just a second, we will talk about this in a minute. But first I would like to address the second part of your question, Mariupol. The situation is difficult and possibly even tragic there. But in fact, it is very simple.

I had a conversation with President Erdogan today. He spoke about the ongoing fighting there. No, there is no fighting there; it is over. There is no fighting in Mariupol; it has stopped.

Part of the Ukrainian armed forces that were deployed in other industrial districts have surrendered. Nearly 1,300 of them have surrendered, but the actual figure is larger. Some of them were injured or wounded; they are being kept in absolutely normal conditions. The wounded have received medical assistance from our doctors, skilled and comprehensive assistance.

The Azovstal plant has been fully isolated. I have issued instructions, an order to stop the assault. There is no direct fighting there now. Yes, the Ukrainian authorities say that there are civilians at the plant. In this case, the Ukrainian military must release them, or otherwise they will be doing what terrorists in many countries have done, what ISIS did in Syria when they used civilians as human shields. The simplest thing they can do is release these people; it is as simple as that.

You say that Russia’s humanitarian corridors are ineffective. Mr Secretary-General, you have been misled: these corridors are effective. Over 100,000 people, 130,000–140,000, if I remember correctly, have left Mariupol with our assistance, and they are free to go where they want, to Russia or Ukraine. They can go anywhere they want; we are not detaining them, but we are providing assistance and support to them.

The civilians in Azovstal, if there are any, can do this as well. They can come out, just like that. This is an example of a civilised attitude to people, an obvious example. And anyone can see this; you only need to talk with the people who have left the city. The simplest thing for military personnel or members of the nationalist battalions is to release the civilians. It is a crime to keep civilians, if there are any there, as human shields.

We maintain contact with them, with those who are hiding underground at the Azovstal plant. They have an example they can follow: their comrades-in-arms have surrendered, over a thousand of them, 1,300. Nothing bad has happened to them. Moreover, Mr Secretary-General, if you wish, if representatives of the Red Cross and the UN want to inspect their detainment conditions and see for themselves where and how medical assistance is being provided to them, we are ready to organise this. It is the simplest solution to a seemingly complex issue.

Labor retains clear Newspoll lead and large Ipsos lead as record number of candidates nomina

 

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Each Way Albo
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This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 20-23 from a sample of 1,538, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged from last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (up one), 11% Greens (down one), 4% UAP (steady), 3% One Nation (down one) and 9% for all Others (steady).

54% were dissatisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance (up two), and 42% were satisfied (down one), for a net approval of -12, down three points. Anthony Albanese gained two points to be at -12 net approval. Morrison led as better PM by 46-37 (44-37 previously). Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger.

After a rise to -9 net approval last week, Morrison fell back into negative net double digits. But Albanese only recovered two points of net approval after last week’s 11-point crash, which was the biggest poll to poll drop for an opposition leader since Bill Shorten lost 16 in February 2015.

Although last week’s Newspoll was stable at 53-47 to Labor, all other polls last week had a reduced Labor lead. This week’s Ipsos poll, which gave Labor a 55-45 lead, is easily Labor’s best of the campaign.

The Poll Bludger reported Monday that the Coalition hopes to win regional and outer suburban seats to make up for losses in the inner city by using controversial Warringah candidate Katherine Deves as a “foghorn”.

My view is that concerns over the economy, such as inflation, will be far more important to most voters than culture war issues. The ABS will release its March quarter inflation report Wednesday. Also, city whites without a university education have not moved to the right in the same way they have in the regions.

Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

An Ipsos poll for The Financial Review, conducted April 20-23 from a sample of 2,302, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged from early April. Primary votes were 34% Labor (down one), 32% Coalition (up one), 12% Greens (up two), 4% One Nation (steady), 3% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 8% undecided (up one).

By 2019 election preference flows, Labor led by 50-42 (51-42 previously) – the headline figure excludes undecided. By respondent allocated preferences, Labor led by 48-38 (48-37 previously).

48% disapproved of Morrison (steady) and 34% approved (up one), for a net approval of -14. Albanese’s net approval was down two points to -4. Albanese led as preferred PM by 40-38 (38-37 previously).

Record number of candidates for House

Candidate nominations for the election closed last Thursday, and were declared Friday. The Poll Bludger wrote there are a record 1,203 candidates for the House of Representatives, up from 1,056 in 2019 – an average of about eight candidates per seat.

Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and UAP will contest all 151 seats, One Nation will contest 149, the Liberal Democrats 100, the Federation Party 61 and Animal Justice 48. The large number of candidates is likely to increase the informal vote owing to numbering errors.

Newspoll and other polls have assumed One Nation would only contest the 59 seats it did in 2019. Their results for One Nation are thus far lower than they would be if they were asking for it nationally. One Nation’s support is likely to double in next week’s polls to about 6%.

While House candidates are at a record, the number of above the line boxes for the Senate is down from 2019 in most states. I will have more on the Senate in a future article.

Last week’s Essential poll: Labor’s “2PP+” lead at just 47-46

I covered last week’s Newspoll and Resolve polls here. There were two additional polls last week from the most Coaliton-friendly pollster (Essential) and the most Labor-friendly one (Morgan). Both had Labor’s lead falling.

In last week’s Essential poll, conducted April 14-17 from a sample of 1,020, Labor led by 47-46, down from 50-45 in early April, on Essentail’s “2PP+” that includes undecided.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 35% Labor (down one), 9% Greens (down one), 4% UAP (up one), 3% One Nation (down one), 5% for all Others (steady) and 7% undecided (up two).

48% disapproved of Morrison (steady since March) and 44% approved (down one), for a net approval of -4. Albanese’s net approval was down seven to zero. Morrison led as better PM by 40-36 (39-36 in March).

Essential asked for ratings of Greens leader Adam Bandt and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce. Bandt had a 33-27 approval and Joyce a 45-33 disapproval. This is far better for Joyce than Resolve polls of him last year, with a July 2021 Resolve poll giving Joyce a 45-16 negative rating.

The federal government had a 40-35 good rating for its response to COVID (39-35 in March). State government ratings were relatively stable from March, with Victoria the lowest and WA the highest.

Labor was trusted more than the Coalition by at least 15 points to manage four aspects of the caring economy. 34% (up two since March) thought the Coalition deserved to be re-elected, while 48% (steady) thought it was time to give someone else a go.

Morgan poll: 55-45 to Labor

A Morgan poll, conducted April 11-17 from a sample of 1,382, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (up three), 35% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 4.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 1.5% UAP (steady), 6.5% independents (down two) and 3% others (down one).

This is the first time since November that the Coalition has been ahead of Labor on primary votes, and the highest Greens support in Morgan since the previous election.

WA poll: Albanese leads Morrison on economic management

The Poll Bludger reported a Painted Dog poll conducted for The West Australian from a sample of 1,241 on April 20. The poll gave Albanese a 54-46 lead over Morrison on handling the economy, which is normally a Coalition strength. Morrison’s net approval was -29, while Albanese was at net zero.

The Poll Bludger notes that this poll has never provided voting intentions, and so has never been tested at an election. In the March quarter Newspoll aggregate, both Morrison and Albanese were at net -5 approval in WA.

Seat polls: Kooyong, North Sydney and Griffith

Seat polls are unreliable, and particularly those released for partisan campaigns.

The Poll Bludger reported that a uComms poll in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong for the campaign of independent Monique Ryan gave Ryan a 59-41 lead over Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, from primary votes of 35.5% Frydenberg, 31.8% Ryan, 12.8% Labor and 11.7% Greens. This poll was conducted April 12 from a sample of 847.

A Community Engagement poll in North Sydney, conducted April 11-12 from a sample of 1,114, gave the Liberals 37.1% of the primary vote, an independent 19.4%, Labor 17.3%, the Greens 8.7%, the UAP 5.6%, others 3.8% and undecided 8.2%. No two party vote was given.

The Poll Bludger reported that the Greens claim they will win the Brisbane seat of Griffith from Labor based on 25,000 responses to their door-knocking campaign. They claim this method was accurate in predicting Greens successes at past elections.

Macron easily wins French presidential election

In Sunday’s French presidential runoff election, incumbent Emmanuel Macron defeated the far-right Marine Le Pen by a 58.5-41.5 margin. My Poll Bludger article also included a preview of the May 5 UK local and Northern Ireland assembly elections.

A prior article covered Republican Florida governor Ron DeSantis’ Florida gerrymander, and an upcoming UK parliamentary byelection in Wakefield.

Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.




President Putin held meeting on economic issues via videoconference

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President Putin during the meeting on economic issues (via videoconference).

The President held a regular meeting on economic issues via videoconference

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon, colleagues,

We have agreed to hold regular meetings on the situation in the Russian economy and monitor changes in key macroeconomic indicators that characterise business, investment activity and labour market dynamics.

Naturally, this work is of special importance because based on the detailed analysis and consideration of potential risks, we have taken and will take measures on additional support for our people, industries and companies, as well as the economy as a whole.

I would like to emphasise that the economy continues to stabilise. Inflation has slowed; weekly price increases have approached normal levels, and prices on some goods have started dropping.

Analysts believe that two major factors are playing a role in this: the currency market situation, where the ruble has been rapidly growing stronger again, and the second factor, the consumer demand dynamic. I would like to emphasise that after a surge in February and March, consumer activity has objectively declined.

It is very important not to lose control of the situation and to prevent a misbalance in economic dynamics. On the one hand, we need to ensure gradual normalisation of pricing dynamics, and on the other, it is essential to prevent a serious reduction in demand, which could lead to setbacks in the operation of companies and a decrease in budget revenues.

So, in the current situation, it is necessary to support domestic companies to enable them to increase the supply of goods and services. It is also important to encourage domestic demand and the purchasing power of the population.

In this respect, I would like to draw your attention to key, important factors like the employment rate and average income. As I have said more than once, we will judge the efficiency of our economic policy with these indicators.

I should note that the lower lending activity of the banking system is affecting the final demand. Commercial risk and growing interest rates are the reason. Everybody understands that. We know this.

Let me remind you that the key rate increase by the Central Bank was, however, justified and necessary to stabilise the banking sector and financial markets. The decision proved successful and the Bank of Russia is already lowering the key rate gradually, which will make loans cheaper. Other steps are possible based on the real situation in the sector, but this is the prerogative of the Central Bank.

It is important that the Government is also issuing directives to complement these measures. Special programmes to support key industries have been launched. Easy-term loans are available to backbone enterprises in industrial production, trade, agriculture, oil processing and construction. Companies in these industries are also eligible for guarantees from VEB.RF worth a total of 800 billion rubles.

I would like to add that, despite the current challenges, we are keeping the easy-term mortgage programmes, including mortgages for families, with more funds allocated from the federal budget.

At the same time, I believe it is necessary to issue additional directives – primarily, with respect to mortgages. As we can see, the dynamic here is slower than the forecasts, and to make buying homes more accessible to people and stimulate real estate development in general, I propose lowering the easy-term mortgage rate from the recently set 12 percent to 9 percent per annum. Yes, we did recently set this interest rate at 12 percent but the overall situation is positive, which makes it possible to lower it. It is also necessary to extend the easy-term mortgage programme until the end of this year.

Next subject. Many companies are still experiencing a serious shortage of working capital that is used to purchase raw materials, components and services. This shortage must be compensated for. Our business colleagues always mention this at our industry-specific meetings. Therefore, I believe it is possible to introduce two new measures.

I propose expanding the guaranteed support programme by VEB beyond the backbone companies to provide support to other enterprises that do not have this status yet but that are already larger than small and medium-sized businesses and operate in the real sector. I should remind you as well that we already have some special support measures in place for smaller businesses. The VEB guarantees will account for up to 50 percent of a loan. I believe that the total value of the loans supported by this programme must be around 1.1 trillion rubles.

The second thing. I suggest granting a delay in insurance premium payments for companies that supply the domestic market with goods and services. We have talked at length about various support instruments such as a high Central Bank rate, as I mentioned. We have also talked about different support mechanisms for companies and sectors, but this is a systemic measure that covers almost all of the economy. I suggest suspending these payments for one year.

I would like to clarify right now that this measure would apply to all the companies I just mentioned. This list will not include exporters, financial and wholesale trade companies or public sector organisations. The Government will determine a precise list of the sectors included.

A grace period, for suspending these insurance payments, will cover the second quarter of this year. This grace period will also run through the third quarter for manufacturing companies.

We estimate that this measure will apply to over 2.8 million companies with almost 52 million workers. It will allow businesses to keep about 1.1 trillion rubles in the second quarter and another half a trillion rubles in the third quarter. These funds will work inside the economy, ensuring the production cycle. They will provide additional support for related companies, suppliers and contractors.

Let me repeat: insurance payments for the second and third quarters will have to be made starting in May 2023. Moreover, we can also think about additional preferences for manufacturing companies as regards payments in the third quarter. I will not go into detail right now, but it will be possible to do this if the employment and payroll funds are kept at June 1, 2022 levels.

I would like to ask the Government to draft detailed proposals on the criteria for these benefits based on the economic situation in general. I have special instructions for the Finance Ministry – to anticipate compensating for the shortfall in revenue in extra-budgetary funds. This must have enough money to ensure the confident operation of the healthcare and social support systems.

And, of course, I am instructing the Government, in cooperation with the Bank of Russia, to closely follow all developments and analyse the efficiency of the suggested mechanisms with a view to making adjustments whenever necessary.

Let’s get down to discussing today’s agenda.

Ms Nabiullina, go ahead please.

Source: President of Russia

How Reporters Reconstructed a Deadly Evacuation From Kabul

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Deadly Evacuation From Kabul Airport

By Stephen Engelberg

ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

Series:
A Closer Look

Examining the News

On Aug. 26, 2021, a suicide bomber detonated a vest packed with explosives and ball bearings in the packed crowd outside Kabul’s international airport. Shrapnel sliced through the air, killing 13 American service members and an estimated 160 Afghan civilians.

In the hours after the attack, officials reported that a second assailant had sprayed the crowd with automatic weapons fire, increasing the casualty toll in what was one of the deadliest attacks on American forces in the 20 years of war in Afghanistan.

As so often happens in such cases, the U.S. military’s initial account raised more questions than it answered. The Marines scrambling to evacuate civilians as Taliban forces swept into Kabul had been explicitly warned of a possible suicide attack that very day. Yet they seemed to have failed to take basic security precautions. Republicans seized on the bombing as evidence that the Biden administration had bungled its first foreign policy challenge, failing to forsee how quickly the Taliban would overwhelm the American-backed Afghan government.

The story cried out for the sort of investigative reporting we have done previously on the U.S. military, looking into subjects like the spate of fatal accidents involving the Navy’s 7th Fleet. Pursuing such stories can be challenging. They often take longer than expected and the military’s propensity for classifying the details of its missteps inevitably complicates the reporting. The relentless pace of the news cycle can mean that public attention will move on to The Next Big Thing by the time we can explain what really happened in the last one.

So it was with Abbey Gate. The fall of Kabul was followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We published our grippingly told story on the same day as Western news outlets began reporting that Russian soldiers had committed atrocities in the Kiev suburb of Bucha.

Still, I hope readers will make time to read this unforgettable investigation.

The piece we published is unusual in that it was done in collaboration with Alive in Afghanistan, a nonprofit news agency launched in the days after the fall of Kabul that employs local reporters to give greater voice to Afghans caught up in a struggle of global and regional powers.

Our partnership meant that the story of Abbey Gate was told from the perspectives of both the Afghans desperate to flee the Taliban and the ill-prepared Americans at the airport scrambling to facilitate their escape. Such reporting is unusual in war zones. Typically, correspondents are lucky if they can find and interview a handful of witnesses to a traumatic event like a suicide bombing.

In fact, the idea of taking a hard look at the bombing was initiated by editors at Alive in Afghanistan. Their Kabul-based reporters had heard multiple reports that some of the deaths outside the airport were the result of friendly fire as Western soldiers shot at what they thought were Islamic State gunmen in the crowd. Some of the medical personnel who treated casualties from Abbey Gate said they believed they saw injuries that could only have been caused by bullets.

Alive in Afghanistan pushed to find further evidence in Kabul, a tricky task in a city newly under Taliban control. Two ProPublica reporters, Josh Kaplan and Joaquin Sapien, began the painstaking work of finding and interviewing U.S. service members who were guarding the Abbey Gate checkpoint on Aug. 26.

Corroboration for the friendly fire theory proved elusive. Forensic experts differed on whether it was possible for a doctor, even one experienced in wartime injuries, to distinguish between damage caused by a ball bearing and that caused by a military-grade bullet. U.S. officials acknowledged that a small number of rounds had been fired but insisted they had been aimed over the heads of the civilians.

ProPublica and Alive in Afghanistan tracked down six doctors in three hospitals who believed they had seen bullet wounds. None were interviewed for the Pentagon report that concluded all of the deaths were due to the explosion. In an earlier story on the attack, we interviewed Dr. Hares Aref, a senior surgeon at Wazir Akbar Khan Hospital, who said he had operated on three civilians from Abbey Gate whose legs were wounded by bullets. “We had patients with bullet injury in this attack, it’s clear,” he said. Aref based his conclusion on what he had seen treating victims of countless Kabul bombings. “My proof is my experience.”

While the issue of whether civilians were hit by U.S. fire remains contested, our recounting of the events made clear the extent to which the forces overseeing the evacuation were put in an untenable position.

U.S. officials acknowledged that they did not launch a large-scale evacuation until days before the fall of Kabul. Units that became central to the operation had not been included in the planning process and had not specifically trained for it. And while military officials knew the airport was difficult to defend and susceptible to attack, by the time Marines arrived, it was too late to adequately fortify the airfield.

In the final hours before the attack, U.S. commanders decided to leave open unguarded pathways to Abbey Gate. It is believed the bomber took advantage of such a route to make his way to the site of the explosion.

Our interviews documented the chaos at the airport on the day of the attack. U.S. Marines acted as de facto immigration officers and were left to interpret vague policies with little guidance, struggling to decide who to let into the airport and who to leave behind. They told our reporters that communication breakdowns and a lack of food, water and shelter led to preventable civilian deaths. Afghans perished from heat exhaustion. Some were crushed to death while waiting in line.

In the end, the scene at the airport was a microcosm of America’s experience in Afghanistan. The military’s hasty planning, rooted in optimistic assumptions, proved no match for the reality of a society in collapse.

As you follow the war in the Ukraine, it’s worth taking some time with this grunts’- and civilians’-eye view of how wrong a military operation can go.







Brisbane Cross River Rail station excavation hits record breaking milestone

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Cross River Rail

A station box excavated at a record-breaking depth of 50 metres beneath Brisbane has been completed as part of the construction of Brisbane CBD’s first new train station in more than 120 years.

Acting Premier and Minister for State Development Steven Miles said the station box for the new Cross River Rail underground station on Albert Street was about 50 metres deep at its lowest point – almost double the previous record of 26 metres set during Queen’s Wharf construction.

“This dig, in the heart of the CBD, has smashed the previous record, making it the deepest in Brisbane’s history,” Mr Miles said..embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }

“This milestone for Cross River Rail is yet another example of the sheer scale of this project.

“To give an idea of the size, if this was an underground carpark, it would be about 15 levels deep, with excavation generating enough spoil to fill 19 Olympic-sized swimming pools.

“The Myer Centre carpark just up the road has a depth of 22 metres, and this is over double that.

“It is a credit to the over 250 workers on-site
who achieved this despite challenging engineering conditions in between high-rise buildings in the middle of a bustling CBD.”

Mr Miles said the focus on site would now shift towards permanent building works for the new station.

“The end of excavation means the most intensive period of work on site is now complete, and we thank those living nearby for their patience and understanding while the work took place,” he said.

“As the project progresses this year, we’ll start to see the stations themselves take shape here at Albert Street, but also at our other underground station sites and in the tunnels themselves.

“This month we saw some of the first rail delivered to the Gabba site, which will soon be running down the tunnels.

“The Cross River Rail project has great momentum, and we continue to smash milestone after milestone to the benefit of the Queensland economy.”

Transport and Main Roads Minister Mark Bailey said that the station box formed only one half of the total station area being excavated.

“While excavation of the 50-metre-deep station box cavern has been completed, we continue to work away on the adjoining 290-metre-long station cavern,” Mr Bailey said.

The Albert Street station will have entrances at both ends, dramatically improving connectivity to not only Botanic Gardens, QUT Gardens Point campus and the new and Queen’s Wharf Brisbane development but also Elizabeth St and Queen Street Mall.

“It’s hard to grasp just how big these stations will be, but just imagine some of Brisbane’s tallest skyscrapers laying horizontally underground.

“With over 67,000 people expected to use the Albert Street station each weekday by 2036, these long platforms are definitely needed.”

Mr Bailey stressed the importance of the new Albert Street station, especially for the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

“We know how important Cross River Rail was in Queensland’s winning Olympic bid and the crucial role it will play in unlocking the rail network bottleneck over the Brisbane River,” he said.

“As our population continues to boom, I’m sure the extra services we can provide across the whole network will be warmly welcomed by commuters, tourists and games-goers alike.”

Construction of the Albert St station building is expected to be completed in late-2023.

Albert Street station fast facts:

  • The fully excavated station box is about 46.4 metres below ground at the main bottom (B10) level, and almost 50 metres below ground level at its deepest point at sump level (about 15 storeys).
  • The previous record for the deepest excavation was 26 metres for the Queen’s Wharf development.
  • About 47,305 cubic metres of spoil was removed during excavation – the equivalent of about 19 Olympic swimming pools.
  • Excavation involved the installation of 340 rock anchors and over 1500 bolts, as well as 4,500 cubic metres of shotcrete.
  • About 100 workers are involved in excavating the Albert Street station box, with about 250 workers on the Albert Street site in total.
  • While the station platform will be 31 metres below ground, supporting equipment such as tunnel ventilation fans and hydraulic plant rooms mean the station box needs to be excavated deeper.
  • Following excavation, work is underway on permanent building structure works, including drainage, waterproofing and concrete works.
  • The Albert Street site also includes a 290-metre-long cavern up to 34 metres below ground, which is almost fully excavated, and a northern entrance that will be up to 28 metres deep, and currently about 76 per cent through excavation.
  • When completed, the station building itself will be about 40 metres above ground at roof level.
  • The station platforms will be 220 metres long, and more than 67,000 people are expected to use the station each weekday by 2036.
JOINT STATEMENT
Acting Premier and Minister for the Olympics
The Honourable Dr Steven Miles
Minister for Transport and Main Roads
The Honourable Mark Bailey

Queensland Government