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Labor retains clear Newspoll lead and large Ipsos lead as record number of candidates nomina

Sam Bernardo
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Labor retains clear Newspoll lead and large Ipsos lead as record number of candidates nomina

 

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Each Way Albo
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This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 20-23 from a sample of 1,538, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged from last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (up one), 11% Greens (down one), 4% UAP (steady), 3% One Nation (down one) and 9% for all Others (steady).

54% were dissatisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance (up two), and 42% were satisfied (down one), for a net approval of -12, down three points. Anthony Albanese gained two points to be at -12 net approval. Morrison led as better PM by 46-37 (44-37 previously). Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger.

After a rise to -9 net approval last week, Morrison fell back into negative net double digits. But Albanese only recovered two points of net approval after last week’s 11-point crash, which was the biggest poll to poll drop for an opposition leader since Bill Shorten lost 16 in February 2015.

Although last week’s Newspoll was stable at 53-47 to Labor, all other polls last week had a reduced Labor lead. This week’s Ipsos poll, which gave Labor a 55-45 lead, is easily Labor’s best of the campaign.

The Poll Bludger reported Monday that the Coalition hopes to win regional and outer suburban seats to make up for losses in the inner city by using controversial Warringah candidate Katherine Deves as a “foghorn”.

My view is that concerns over the economy, such as inflation, will be far more important to most voters than culture war issues. The ABS will release its March quarter inflation report Wednesday. Also, city whites without a university education have not moved to the right in the same way they have in the regions.

Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

An Ipsos poll for The Financial Review, conducted April 20-23 from a sample of 2,302, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged from early April. Primary votes were 34% Labor (down one), 32% Coalition (up one), 12% Greens (up two), 4% One Nation (steady), 3% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 8% undecided (up one).

By 2019 election preference flows, Labor led by 50-42 (51-42 previously) – the headline figure excludes undecided. By respondent allocated preferences, Labor led by 48-38 (48-37 previously).

48% disapproved of Morrison (steady) and 34% approved (up one), for a net approval of -14. Albanese’s net approval was down two points to -4. Albanese led as preferred PM by 40-38 (38-37 previously).

Record number of candidates for House

Candidate nominations for the election closed last Thursday, and were declared Friday. The Poll Bludger wrote there are a record 1,203 candidates for the House of Representatives, up from 1,056 in 2019 – an average of about eight candidates per seat.

Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and UAP will contest all 151 seats, One Nation will contest 149, the Liberal Democrats 100, the Federation Party 61 and Animal Justice 48. The large number of candidates is likely to increase the informal vote owing to numbering errors.

Newspoll and other polls have assumed One Nation would only contest the 59 seats it did in 2019. Their results for One Nation are thus far lower than they would be if they were asking for it nationally. One Nation’s support is likely to double in next week’s polls to about 6%.

While House candidates are at a record, the number of above the line boxes for the Senate is down from 2019 in most states. I will have more on the Senate in a future article.

Last week’s Essential poll: Labor’s “2PP+” lead at just 47-46

I covered last week’s Newspoll and Resolve polls here. There were two additional polls last week from the most Coaliton-friendly pollster (Essential) and the most Labor-friendly one (Morgan). Both had Labor’s lead falling.

In last week’s Essential poll, conducted April 14-17 from a sample of 1,020, Labor led by 47-46, down from 50-45 in early April, on Essentail’s “2PP+” that includes undecided.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 35% Labor (down one), 9% Greens (down one), 4% UAP (up one), 3% One Nation (down one), 5% for all Others (steady) and 7% undecided (up two).

48% disapproved of Morrison (steady since March) and 44% approved (down one), for a net approval of -4. Albanese’s net approval was down seven to zero. Morrison led as better PM by 40-36 (39-36 in March).

Essential asked for ratings of Greens leader Adam Bandt and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce. Bandt had a 33-27 approval and Joyce a 45-33 disapproval. This is far better for Joyce than Resolve polls of him last year, with a July 2021 Resolve poll giving Joyce a 45-16 negative rating.

The federal government had a 40-35 good rating for its response to COVID (39-35 in March). State government ratings were relatively stable from March, with Victoria the lowest and WA the highest.

Labor was trusted more than the Coalition by at least 15 points to manage four aspects of the caring economy. 34% (up two since March) thought the Coalition deserved to be re-elected, while 48% (steady) thought it was time to give someone else a go.

Morgan poll: 55-45 to Labor

A Morgan poll, conducted April 11-17 from a sample of 1,382, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (up three), 35% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 4.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 1.5% UAP (steady), 6.5% independents (down two) and 3% others (down one).

This is the first time since November that the Coalition has been ahead of Labor on primary votes, and the highest Greens support in Morgan since the previous election.

WA poll: Albanese leads Morrison on economic management

The Poll Bludger reported a Painted Dog poll conducted for The West Australian from a sample of 1,241 on April 20. The poll gave Albanese a 54-46 lead over Morrison on handling the economy, which is normally a Coalition strength. Morrison’s net approval was -29, while Albanese was at net zero.

The Poll Bludger notes that this poll has never provided voting intentions, and so has never been tested at an election. In the March quarter Newspoll aggregate, both Morrison and Albanese were at net -5 approval in WA.

Seat polls: Kooyong, North Sydney and Griffith

Seat polls are unreliable, and particularly those released for partisan campaigns.

The Poll Bludger reported that a uComms poll in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong for the campaign of independent Monique Ryan gave Ryan a 59-41 lead over Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, from primary votes of 35.5% Frydenberg, 31.8% Ryan, 12.8% Labor and 11.7% Greens. This poll was conducted April 12 from a sample of 847.

A Community Engagement poll in North Sydney, conducted April 11-12 from a sample of 1,114, gave the Liberals 37.1% of the primary vote, an independent 19.4%, Labor 17.3%, the Greens 8.7%, the UAP 5.6%, others 3.8% and undecided 8.2%. No two party vote was given.

The Poll Bludger reported that the Greens claim they will win the Brisbane seat of Griffith from Labor based on 25,000 responses to their door-knocking campaign. They claim this method was accurate in predicting Greens successes at past elections.

Macron easily wins French presidential election

In Sunday’s French presidential runoff election, incumbent Emmanuel Macron defeated the far-right Marine Le Pen by a 58.5-41.5 margin. My Poll Bludger article also included a preview of the May 5 UK local and Northern Ireland assembly elections.

A prior article covered Republican Florida governor Ron DeSantis’ Florida gerrymander, and an upcoming UK parliamentary byelection in Wakefield.

Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.




President Putin held meeting on economic issues via videoconference

Sam Bernardo
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President Putin held meeting on economic issues via videoconference

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President Putin during the meeting on economic issues (via videoconference).

The President held a regular meeting on economic issues via videoconference

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon, colleagues,

We have agreed to hold regular meetings on the situation in the Russian economy and monitor changes in key macroeconomic indicators that characterise business, investment activity and labour market dynamics.

Naturally, this work is of special importance because based on the detailed analysis and consideration of potential risks, we have taken and will take measures on additional support for our people, industries and companies, as well as the economy as a whole.

I would like to emphasise that the economy continues to stabilise. Inflation has slowed; weekly price increases have approached normal levels, and prices on some goods have started dropping.

Analysts believe that two major factors are playing a role in this: the currency market situation, where the ruble has been rapidly growing stronger again, and the second factor, the consumer demand dynamic. I would like to emphasise that after a surge in February and March, consumer activity has objectively declined.

It is very important not to lose control of the situation and to prevent a misbalance in economic dynamics. On the one hand, we need to ensure gradual normalisation of pricing dynamics, and on the other, it is essential to prevent a serious reduction in demand, which could lead to setbacks in the operation of companies and a decrease in budget revenues.

So, in the current situation, it is necessary to support domestic companies to enable them to increase the supply of goods and services. It is also important to encourage domestic demand and the purchasing power of the population.

In this respect, I would like to draw your attention to key, important factors like the employment rate and average income. As I have said more than once, we will judge the efficiency of our economic policy with these indicators.

I should note that the lower lending activity of the banking system is affecting the final demand. Commercial risk and growing interest rates are the reason. Everybody understands that. We know this.

Let me remind you that the key rate increase by the Central Bank was, however, justified and necessary to stabilise the banking sector and financial markets. The decision proved successful and the Bank of Russia is already lowering the key rate gradually, which will make loans cheaper. Other steps are possible based on the real situation in the sector, but this is the prerogative of the Central Bank.

It is important that the Government is also issuing directives to complement these measures. Special programmes to support key industries have been launched. Easy-term loans are available to backbone enterprises in industrial production, trade, agriculture, oil processing and construction. Companies in these industries are also eligible for guarantees from VEB.RF worth a total of 800 billion rubles.

I would like to add that, despite the current challenges, we are keeping the easy-term mortgage programmes, including mortgages for families, with more funds allocated from the federal budget.

At the same time, I believe it is necessary to issue additional directives – primarily, with respect to mortgages. As we can see, the dynamic here is slower than the forecasts, and to make buying homes more accessible to people and stimulate real estate development in general, I propose lowering the easy-term mortgage rate from the recently set 12 percent to 9 percent per annum. Yes, we did recently set this interest rate at 12 percent but the overall situation is positive, which makes it possible to lower it. It is also necessary to extend the easy-term mortgage programme until the end of this year.

Next subject. Many companies are still experiencing a serious shortage of working capital that is used to purchase raw materials, components and services. This shortage must be compensated for. Our business colleagues always mention this at our industry-specific meetings. Therefore, I believe it is possible to introduce two new measures.

I propose expanding the guaranteed support programme by VEB beyond the backbone companies to provide support to other enterprises that do not have this status yet but that are already larger than small and medium-sized businesses and operate in the real sector. I should remind you as well that we already have some special support measures in place for smaller businesses. The VEB guarantees will account for up to 50 percent of a loan. I believe that the total value of the loans supported by this programme must be around 1.1 trillion rubles.

The second thing. I suggest granting a delay in insurance premium payments for companies that supply the domestic market with goods and services. We have talked at length about various support instruments such as a high Central Bank rate, as I mentioned. We have also talked about different support mechanisms for companies and sectors, but this is a systemic measure that covers almost all of the economy. I suggest suspending these payments for one year.

I would like to clarify right now that this measure would apply to all the companies I just mentioned. This list will not include exporters, financial and wholesale trade companies or public sector organisations. The Government will determine a precise list of the sectors included.

A grace period, for suspending these insurance payments, will cover the second quarter of this year. This grace period will also run through the third quarter for manufacturing companies.

We estimate that this measure will apply to over 2.8 million companies with almost 52 million workers. It will allow businesses to keep about 1.1 trillion rubles in the second quarter and another half a trillion rubles in the third quarter. These funds will work inside the economy, ensuring the production cycle. They will provide additional support for related companies, suppliers and contractors.

Let me repeat: insurance payments for the second and third quarters will have to be made starting in May 2023. Moreover, we can also think about additional preferences for manufacturing companies as regards payments in the third quarter. I will not go into detail right now, but it will be possible to do this if the employment and payroll funds are kept at June 1, 2022 levels.

I would like to ask the Government to draft detailed proposals on the criteria for these benefits based on the economic situation in general. I have special instructions for the Finance Ministry – to anticipate compensating for the shortfall in revenue in extra-budgetary funds. This must have enough money to ensure the confident operation of the healthcare and social support systems.

And, of course, I am instructing the Government, in cooperation with the Bank of Russia, to closely follow all developments and analyse the efficiency of the suggested mechanisms with a view to making adjustments whenever necessary.

Let’s get down to discussing today’s agenda.

Ms Nabiullina, go ahead please.

Source: President of Russia

How Reporters Reconstructed a Deadly Evacuation From Kabul

Sam Bernardo
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How Reporters Reconstructed a Deadly Evacuation From Kabul

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Deadly Evacuation From Kabul Airport

By Stephen Engelberg

ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

Series:
A Closer Look

Examining the News

On Aug. 26, 2021, a suicide bomber detonated a vest packed with explosives and ball bearings in the packed crowd outside Kabul’s international airport. Shrapnel sliced through the air, killing 13 American service members and an estimated 160 Afghan civilians.

In the hours after the attack, officials reported that a second assailant had sprayed the crowd with automatic weapons fire, increasing the casualty toll in what was one of the deadliest attacks on American forces in the 20 years of war in Afghanistan.

As so often happens in such cases, the U.S. military’s initial account raised more questions than it answered. The Marines scrambling to evacuate civilians as Taliban forces swept into Kabul had been explicitly warned of a possible suicide attack that very day. Yet they seemed to have failed to take basic security precautions. Republicans seized on the bombing as evidence that the Biden administration had bungled its first foreign policy challenge, failing to forsee how quickly the Taliban would overwhelm the American-backed Afghan government.

The story cried out for the sort of investigative reporting we have done previously on the U.S. military, looking into subjects like the spate of fatal accidents involving the Navy’s 7th Fleet. Pursuing such stories can be challenging. They often take longer than expected and the military’s propensity for classifying the details of its missteps inevitably complicates the reporting. The relentless pace of the news cycle can mean that public attention will move on to The Next Big Thing by the time we can explain what really happened in the last one.

So it was with Abbey Gate. The fall of Kabul was followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We published our grippingly told story on the same day as Western news outlets began reporting that Russian soldiers had committed atrocities in the Kiev suburb of Bucha.

Still, I hope readers will make time to read this unforgettable investigation.

The piece we published is unusual in that it was done in collaboration with Alive in Afghanistan, a nonprofit news agency launched in the days after the fall of Kabul that employs local reporters to give greater voice to Afghans caught up in a struggle of global and regional powers.

Our partnership meant that the story of Abbey Gate was told from the perspectives of both the Afghans desperate to flee the Taliban and the ill-prepared Americans at the airport scrambling to facilitate their escape. Such reporting is unusual in war zones. Typically, correspondents are lucky if they can find and interview a handful of witnesses to a traumatic event like a suicide bombing.

In fact, the idea of taking a hard look at the bombing was initiated by editors at Alive in Afghanistan. Their Kabul-based reporters had heard multiple reports that some of the deaths outside the airport were the result of friendly fire as Western soldiers shot at what they thought were Islamic State gunmen in the crowd. Some of the medical personnel who treated casualties from Abbey Gate said they believed they saw injuries that could only have been caused by bullets.

Alive in Afghanistan pushed to find further evidence in Kabul, a tricky task in a city newly under Taliban control. Two ProPublica reporters, Josh Kaplan and Joaquin Sapien, began the painstaking work of finding and interviewing U.S. service members who were guarding the Abbey Gate checkpoint on Aug. 26.

Corroboration for the friendly fire theory proved elusive. Forensic experts differed on whether it was possible for a doctor, even one experienced in wartime injuries, to distinguish between damage caused by a ball bearing and that caused by a military-grade bullet. U.S. officials acknowledged that a small number of rounds had been fired but insisted they had been aimed over the heads of the civilians.

ProPublica and Alive in Afghanistan tracked down six doctors in three hospitals who believed they had seen bullet wounds. None were interviewed for the Pentagon report that concluded all of the deaths were due to the explosion. In an earlier story on the attack, we interviewed Dr. Hares Aref, a senior surgeon at Wazir Akbar Khan Hospital, who said he had operated on three civilians from Abbey Gate whose legs were wounded by bullets. “We had patients with bullet injury in this attack, it’s clear,” he said. Aref based his conclusion on what he had seen treating victims of countless Kabul bombings. “My proof is my experience.”

While the issue of whether civilians were hit by U.S. fire remains contested, our recounting of the events made clear the extent to which the forces overseeing the evacuation were put in an untenable position.

U.S. officials acknowledged that they did not launch a large-scale evacuation until days before the fall of Kabul. Units that became central to the operation had not been included in the planning process and had not specifically trained for it. And while military officials knew the airport was difficult to defend and susceptible to attack, by the time Marines arrived, it was too late to adequately fortify the airfield.

In the final hours before the attack, U.S. commanders decided to leave open unguarded pathways to Abbey Gate. It is believed the bomber took advantage of such a route to make his way to the site of the explosion.

Our interviews documented the chaos at the airport on the day of the attack. U.S. Marines acted as de facto immigration officers and were left to interpret vague policies with little guidance, struggling to decide who to let into the airport and who to leave behind. They told our reporters that communication breakdowns and a lack of food, water and shelter led to preventable civilian deaths. Afghans perished from heat exhaustion. Some were crushed to death while waiting in line.

In the end, the scene at the airport was a microcosm of America’s experience in Afghanistan. The military’s hasty planning, rooted in optimistic assumptions, proved no match for the reality of a society in collapse.

As you follow the war in the Ukraine, it’s worth taking some time with this grunts’- and civilians’-eye view of how wrong a military operation can go.

Stephen Engelberg

Stephen Engelberg is ProPublica’s editor-in-chief and served as founding managing editor from 2008–2012.







Brisbane Cross River Rail station excavation hits record breaking milestone

Sam Bernardo
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Brisbane Cross River Rail station excavation hits record breaking milestone

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Cross River Rail

A station box excavated at a record-breaking depth of 50 metres beneath Brisbane has been completed as part of the construction of Brisbane CBD’s first new train station in more than 120 years.

Acting Premier and Minister for State Development Steven Miles said the station box for the new Cross River Rail underground station on Albert Street was about 50 metres deep at its lowest point – almost double the previous record of 26 metres set during Queen’s Wharf construction.

“This dig, in the heart of the CBD, has smashed the previous record, making it the deepest in Brisbane’s history,” Mr Miles said..embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }

“This milestone for Cross River Rail is yet another example of the sheer scale of this project.

“To give an idea of the size, if this was an underground carpark, it would be about 15 levels deep, with excavation generating enough spoil to fill 19 Olympic-sized swimming pools.

“The Myer Centre carpark just up the road has a depth of 22 metres, and this is over double that.

“It is a credit to the over 250 workers on-site
who achieved this despite challenging engineering conditions in between high-rise buildings in the middle of a bustling CBD.”

Mr Miles said the focus on site would now shift towards permanent building works for the new station.

“The end of excavation means the most intensive period of work on site is now complete, and we thank those living nearby for their patience and understanding while the work took place,” he said.

“As the project progresses this year, we’ll start to see the stations themselves take shape here at Albert Street, but also at our other underground station sites and in the tunnels themselves.

“This month we saw some of the first rail delivered to the Gabba site, which will soon be running down the tunnels.

“The Cross River Rail project has great momentum, and we continue to smash milestone after milestone to the benefit of the Queensland economy.”

Transport and Main Roads Minister Mark Bailey said that the station box formed only one half of the total station area being excavated.

“While excavation of the 50-metre-deep station box cavern has been completed, we continue to work away on the adjoining 290-metre-long station cavern,” Mr Bailey said.

“The Albert Street station will have entrances at both ends, dramatically improving connectivity to not only Botanic Gardens, QUT Gardens Point campus and the new and Queen’s Wharf Brisbane development but also Elizabeth St and Queen Street Mall.

“It’s hard to grasp just how big these stations will be, but just imagine some of Brisbane’s tallest skyscrapers laying horizontally underground.

“With over 67,000 people expected to use the Albert Street station each weekday by 2036, these long platforms are definitely needed.”

Mr Bailey stressed the importance of the new Albert Street station, especially for the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

“We know how important Cross River Rail was in Queensland’s winning Olympic bid and the crucial role it will play in unlocking the rail network bottleneck over the Brisbane River,” he said.

“As our population continues to boom, I’m sure the extra services we can provide across the whole network will be warmly welcomed by commuters, tourists and games-goers alike.”

Construction of the Albert St station building is expected to be completed in late-2023.

Albert Street station fast facts:

  • The fully excavated station box is about 46.4 metres below ground at the main bottom (B10) level, and almost 50 metres below ground level at its deepest point at sump level (about 15 storeys).
  • The previous record for the deepest excavation was 26 metres for the Queen’s Wharf development.
  • About 47,305 cubic metres of spoil was removed during excavation – the equivalent of about 19 Olympic swimming pools.
  • Excavation involved the installation of 340 rock anchors and over 1500 bolts, as well as 4,500 cubic metres of shotcrete.
  • About 100 workers are involved in excavating the Albert Street station box, with about 250 workers on the Albert Street site in total.
  • While the station platform will be 31 metres below ground, supporting equipment such as tunnel ventilation fans and hydraulic plant rooms mean the station box needs to be excavated deeper.
  • Following excavation, work is underway on permanent building structure works, including drainage, waterproofing and concrete works.
  • The Albert Street site also includes a 290-metre-long cavern up to 34 metres below ground, which is almost fully excavated, and a northern entrance that will be up to 28 metres deep, and currently about 76 per cent through excavation.
  • When completed, the station building itself will be about 40 metres above ground at roof level.
  • The station platforms will be 220 metres long, and more than 67,000 people are expected to use the station each weekday by 2036.
JOINT STATEMENT
Acting Premier and Minister for the Olympics
The Honourable Dr Steven Miles
Minister for Transport and Main Roads
The Honourable Mark Bailey

Queensland Government

Emmanuel Macron is reelected but the French are longing for radical change

Sam Bernardo
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Emmanuel Macron is reelected but the French are longing for radical change

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Emmanuel Macron has been reelected as President of the Republic of France for a second five-year term.

He defeated far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election only hours ago, winning about 58.8% of the votes against 41.2% for his opponent. While votes are still being counted, about 30% of the French electorate did not vote. This is perhaps the highest abstention rate at a presidential elections since 1969.

While most political watchers were expecting a narrower Macron victory, many in France were genuinely scared by the lack of nationwide mass demonstration against Le Pen and the far right ahead of Sunday’s vote. The possibility of having Le Pen elected was higher than ever before.

What are the key consequences of Macron’s reelection for both France and Europe?

Continuity amid dissatisfaction

Providing Macron’s party La République en Marche! can win the lower house election in June – which it is predicted to do – the first major outcome of this election is continuity.

For now, France remains a stable, moderate, “steady-as-she-goes” nation with inclusive values. No major change in policies is expected under Macron.

And this, paradoxically enough, might become a major issue because the 2022 results have clearly shown the French are seeking radical changes and want their concerns to be addressed. Rising costs of living, inflation, low salaries, the environment, law and order, and immigration have all been burning issues during the campaign.

As opposed to the 2017 presidential election, when most voters still supported traditional mainstream parties, this year, the majority of those who voted did so for parties promoting radical measures from both the far left and the far right.

Never before in the history of France’s Fifth Republic had those extremist parties totalled more votes than the moderate parties of the left, the centre and the right.

This means that despite being re-elected somewhat as a result of the French “winner takes it all” voting system, Macron has a real challenge if he does not want to face major social unrest, as was the case in 2018-19 with the violent Yellow Vests movement.

More work ahead for the French

While Macron endlessly repeats he is neither from the left nor from the right, his election campaign’s economic program was preferred by France’s major employers’ federation, the MEDEF.

For instance, in the coming months, Macron once again wants to reform France’s generous pensions system to make the French work longer, so that the existing retirement scheme can endure.

He would also like to propose some conditions for the two million French people who are on the lowest possible social aid scheme, so they perform 15 to 20 hours of work or training in exchange of the money they receive.

The returning president has also pledged to continue attracting foreign investment through the “choose France” program, while supporting start-ups.

But social protections to continue

But Macron also wants to make social benefits easier to access.
Instead of having to apply for a particular scheme, eligible benefits would be paid straight into a person’s bank account.

A woman pushes her bike past campaign posters in Versailles ahead of the final vote.
Michael Euler/AP/AAP

Given the complexity of social aid schemes in France, it is estimated that hundreds of thousands of people who struggle applying for support would be better off under Macron’s new proposal.

A greener France

To gather the support of the Greens electorate, Macron has also pledged to continue subsidising nation-wide insulation programs, renovate 700,000 homes, protect biodiversity and legislate for a greener farming industry. This is an ambitious program in comparison to a first term that delivered mixed results on green policies and climate change.

Macron has also promised to extend the operational life of most nuclear powerplants and to get started on the construction of six new generation nuclear powerplants. In France, most citizens consider nuclear power as a green energy, given the minimal carbon emissions it generates.

This also provides the country with a higher level of energy (and therefore diplomatic) independence than its European neighbors.

What does Macron mean for the European Union?

The re-election of Macron is a blessing for Brussels and European institutions. With Brexit and the departure of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, France is playing an even greater role in European affairs and Paris has the opportunity to breathe new life into the EU.

This, of course, is a defeat for Putin, who tried to intervene in the 2017 Presidential election. Le Pen had close ties to the Russian regime for many years, although she tried to brush them off during the campaign.

Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a joint press conference at the Kremlin in February.
Thibault Camus/EPA/AAP

Macron is a dedicated European and wants to build a stronger and more independent Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian has certainly provided a wake-up call for European leaders.

Previously, many relied on the United States to ensure European defence, while others looked to Moscow for cooperation, or to the French for peacekeeping operations.

That landscape is radically shifting now, and France’s traditional approach to ultimate sovereignty in defence (as the only European country with second strike capability) suddenly looks quite attractive to other European states.

Macron, and other European leaders gathered at Versailles for summit on the war in Ukraine in March.
Ludovic Marin/AP/AAP

High on Macron’s agenda for Europe is greater cooperation between EU states. He wants to ensure Europe’s “strategic autonomy”, be it military, energetic, economic and political.

This will please neither Moscow nor Beijing. It may, however, offer breathing space to Washington who desperately wants to focus on the Pacific.

Macron’s European ambitions are likely to be supported by the Baltic states who fear for their existence, by Eastern European countries who now understand that anything can happen with Putin, and even by the Germans who are radically rethinking their previously timid foreign policy.

The next five years are going to be Macron’s hardest term, be it in the national or international spheres. To succeed he will need to keep radical parties at bay in France, accelerate measures on climate change, and steer the European Union toward a stronger, more independent future.

Romain Fathi, Senior Lecturer, History, Flinders University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

How to survive a tactical nuclear bomb? Defence experts explain

Sam Bernardo
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How to survive a tactical nuclear bomb? Defence experts explain

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Image by Sammy-Sander from Pixabay 

 

There has been widespread discussion of Russia’s threat to use tactical nuclear weapons in its war on Ukraine.

Russia is estimated to have thousands of tactical nuclear weapons – possibly the world’s largest stockpile – which could be deployed at any time. The use of nuclear weapons is also embedded in Russian military doctrine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appealed to the rest of the world to take the threat seriously.

In this article we examine what would happen during a tactical nuclear bomb explosion, including the three stages of ignition, blast and radioactive fallout – and how one might be able to survive this.

Ignition

You see a sudden flash in the sky, as bright as (or even brighter than) the sun. You quickly turn your face away and run for cover.

The brightness suddenly vanishes, but returns again a short while later and continues – the distinctive double flash caused by competition between the fireball and shock wave. It gets incredibly hot and bright, and you shield your eyes to avoid retina burns.

The intense thermal radiation also causes skin burns, possibly through your clothing. Wearing pale-coloured clothing or being indoors will help.

You’ve also received substantial doses of invisible nuclear radiation: gamma rays, X-rays and neutrons. You find cover to shield the worst of the heat and radiation.

You’ve now survived the first seconds of a nuclear detonation, hopefully a “tactical” bomb smaller than that at Hiroshima (which was the equivalent of 15 kilotons of TNT).

The fact you’ve lived this long means you’re on the periphery, not at ground zero. But to survive the next few seconds, there’s a few things you’ll need to do.

The blast wave

Next will come the blast wave. This consists of an overpressure shock wave followed by an outward blast wind, often with reverse winds returning to ground zero.

This will destroy or damage all built structures within a certain radius from the epicentre, depending on the yield and height of the burst.

For example, a 15 kiloton bomb would have a fireball radius of about 100 metres and cause complete destruction up to 1.6 kilometres around the epicentre.

A one kiloton bomb – similar to the 2020 ammonium nitrate explosion in the Lebanese capital Beirut – would have a fireball radius of about 50 metres, with severe damage to about 400 metres.

The shock wave travels faster than the speed of sound (about 343 metres per second). So if you’re one kilometre away from the epicentre, you have less than three seconds to find cover. If you’re five kilometres away, you have less than 15 seconds.

You’ll need to shield yourself from the thermal and nuclear radiation, as you could die if exposed. However, you must find somewhere safe – you don’t want to be crushed in a building destroyed by the blast wave.

Get indoors, and preferably into a reinforced bunker or basement. If you’re in a brick or concrete house with no basement, find a strong part of the building. In Australia, this would be a small bathroom at ground level, or a laundry with brick walls.

The incoming shock wave will reflect off the internal walls, superimposing with the original to double the pressure. Avoid the explosion side of the building and make sure to lie down rather than stand.

If there is no reinforced room, you can lie under a sturdy table or next to (not under) a bed or sofa. You may be crushed under a bed or sofa if a concrete slab crashes down.

Keep away from doors, tall furniture and windows, as they will probably shatter. If the walls come down, you’ll have a chance of surviving in a pocket in the rubble.

If you’re in an apartment building, run to the fire staircase in the structural core of the building.

Avoid timber, fibre cement or prefabricated structures (which includes most modern housing in Australia) as these probably won’t survive. And open your jaw as the blast comes through, so your eardrums get the pressure wave on both sides.

Radioactive fallout

The third stage is the fallout: a cloud of toxic radioactive particles from the bomb will be uplifted during the blast and deposited by the wind, contaminating everything in its path. This will continue for hours after the explosion, or possibly days.

In comparable British-Australian bomb tests at Maralinga, the fallout was clearly preserved in the desert along one kilometre-wide tracks, extending 5–25 kilometres out from ground zero.

You must protect yourself from the fallout or you’ll have a short life.

If you’re in a stable structure such as a basement or fire staircase, you can shelter in place for a few days, if necessary. If your building is destroyed, you’ll need to move to a nearby intact structure.

Block all the doors, windows and air gaps. You can drink water from intact pipes and eat from sealed cans.

For outdoor movement, any PPE available should be used – especially a P2 mask, or even a dust mask. While tactical nukes are designed to destroy personnel or infrastructure, they still allow troop movement under cover of the blast. The radiological hazard is significant, but should be survivable.

A radiological weapon, on the other hand, will deliberately increase the radiation dose to the point of it being lethal.

Once you’ve found shelter, you’ll need to decontaminate. This will require a thorough scrub of the skin, nails and hair, and a change into clean clothing. But any severe burns should be tended to first.

Hopefully by now the national authorities will have stepped in for rescue and medical treatment.

Robert K. Niven, Associate Professor, Australian Defence Force Academy; Chi-King Lee, Professor of Civil Engineering, Australian Defence Force Academy; Damith Mohotti, Senior Lecturer in Civil Engineering, Australian Defence Force Academy, and Paul Hazell, Professor of Impact Dynamics (UNSW Canberra), Australian Defence Force Academy

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

President Donald Trump Speaks at Rally in Delaware, Ohio

Sam Bernardo
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President Donald Trump Speaks at Rally in Delaware, Ohio

 

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 President Donald Trump Speaks at Rally in Delaware, Ohio 
God in Heaven bring back our real President!!! And protect President Trump from the evil, corrupt, cheating, vile DemocRATS! Shall justice come for our stolen vote! Keep praying Patriots!

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Shiba Inu token

Sam Bernardo
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Shiba Inu token (Dogecoin killer) is another meme coin similar to Dogecoin, focused on building a decentralised cryptocurrency created in August 2020 by an anonymous person or group known as “Ryoshi. It is named after the Shiba Inu a Japanese breed of dog originating in the Chūbu region, the same breed that is depicted in Dogecoin‘s symbol, itself 

ShibaSwap is a decentralised exchange that will be launched as part of the SHIB ecosystem. Originally a satirical cryptocurrency based on the Doge meme. Shiba Inu has been characterized as a “meme coin” and a pump and dump scheme.

SHIB is the utility token of the SHIBA INU platform and will be used as an incentive for using ShibaSwap

There have also been concerns about the concentration of the coin with a single “whale” wallet controlling billions of dollars worth of the token, and frenzied buying by retail investors motivated by fear of missing out (FOMO).

Shiba Inu was created in August 2020, dubbing itself the (Dogecoin killer).On 13 May, Vitalik Buterin donated more than 50 trillion SHIB (worth over $1 billion at the time) to the India COVID-Crypto Relief Fund. Through integration with Amazon Smile, the team launched a community effort to rescue Shiba Inu dogs worldwide.

The exchange price of the cryptocurrency notably surged in early October 2021. Its value increased 240% over the week. However, over the first week of November, the price fell by approximately 30%

The team plan to build a vibrant ecosystem built around Defi, art, community & more.

Buy Shib Inu Here: Coinspot

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Putin had a working meeting with Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Sam Bernardo
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Putin had a working meeting with Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

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Putin Meeting with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu: Mr President,

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the people’s militia of the Donetsk People’s Republic have liberated Mariupol. The remaining nationalists are hiding in the industrial area of the Azovstal steel plant.

Mariupol is a major industrial centre and the main transport hub on the Sea of Azov. In 2014, the Kiev regime declared the city the temporary capital of the Donetsk Region, and during the subsequent eight years it has been turned into a powerful stronghold and the base of far-right Ukrainian nationalists. In fact, it was the capital of the Azov Battalion.

A large amount of heavy weaponry and military hardware have been deployed in the city, including tanks, the Smerch and Uragan multiple rocket launcher systems, heavy artillery systems and the Tochka-U missile complexes. Tochka-U has a range of 120 kilometres, while the distance from Mariupol to Russia’s city of Taganrog is 94 kilometres and approximately the same to Rostov, the capital of the Southern Federal District.

The city has been stocked with missiles, munitions, fuel and lubricants, and food provisions for lengthy hostilities. The main infrastructure facilities, including the seaport and the waterway, have been mined and blocked with floating cranes. The majority of vessels there belong to foreign states.

As for armoured vehicles, there were 179 tanks and armoured fighting vehicles there, 170 various guns and mortars, including multiple rocket launchers which I have already mentioned, the Smerch and Uragan systems. When the city was surrounded on March 11, there were more than 8,100 troops of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and nationalist units in the city, as well as foreign mercenaries, who formed a large group. During the operation to liberate the city, over 4,000 of them have been neutralised, 1,478 have surrendered, and the remaining group of over 2,000 has been blocked in the industrial area of the Azovstal plant.

In their resistance efforts, the nationalists used almost all residential buildings as fortified emplacements. Armoured vehicles and artillery were placed on ground floors, and snipers took up positions on upper floors. There were separate units armed with ATGMs as well. The residents were brought to the middle floors and basements and used as human shields. It was done in almost every block of flats.

When retreating, the Ukrainian army and the nationalist battalions in Mariupol and other Ukrainian cities were using civilians as a cover. We are aware of four instances when, in order to cover their retreat, they made people leave the basements. The latest incident was literally four days ago, when we were liberating the port area and they made almost everyone leave high-rise buildings so that they could flee leaving behind ruins, including completely destroyed socially important and cultural sites.

While liberating Mariupol, the Russian army and the people’s militia units from the DPR took every precaution to save civilian lives. Mr President, as you instructed, humanitarian corridors have been created daily since March 21 to evacuate civilians and foreign nationals.

Servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and militants from nationalist battalions were encouraged to lay down their arms. Of course, they were guaranteed life, safety and medical help.

We remained in daily communication with Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine [Irina] Vereshchuk with regard to planned humanitarian acts, which included corridors and transport, both ambulances and buses. Occasionally, up to 100 such buses and 25 to 30 ambulances were made available per day.

Foreign diplomatic missions got in touch with us in various ways because their nationals were there. By the way, we have been able to free and evacuate many of them from Mariupol as part of these humanitarian initiatives. We provided official notifications to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the relevant OSCE structures, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organisations stating the time and place of these initiatives. In some instances, we even insisted on their presence to make sure that all the humanitarian rules are complied with to the extent it was possible, considering the constant and never-ending fire coming from the nationalist battalions and the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Despite the resistance of the fighters and all others, we were able to evacuate 142,711 civilians from Mariupol after you issued instructions to this effect. We freed all hostages at the seaport, including sea crews. Those who took them hostage damaged their communications systems so that they could not get in touch with anyone. The port was mined, and the waterway blocked. I hope that these ships will now be able to leave this port.

As of today, the Russian Army and the Donetsk People’s Republic’s people’s militia control all of Mariupol, reliably blocking Azovstal territory with what remains of the nationalist forces and foreign mercenaries.

Over the past two days, again as per your instructions, we declared a ceasefire between 2 pm and 4 pm, stopped all military action and opened humanitarian corridors to enable civilians who may be at Azovstal to leave.

We prepared about 90 buses for them, and 25 ambulances. Of course, considering all the distortions we face, we installed Russian Aerospace Forces cameras and received the stream almost in real time here at the command centre. No one left Azovstal. However, other civilians, over 100 of them, were able to leave. This was a major effort for us over the past few days, and we carried it out together with all the relevant international organisations.

The city is now calm, which allows us to begin efforts to restore order, enable people to return to their homes and bring peaceful life back to the city. As for those hiding at Azovstal, we have reliably sealed its perimeter, and need three or four days to complete this effort at Azovstal.

This concludes my report.

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: I believe it would be inadvisable to storm this industrial zone.

I order you to cancel it.

Sergei Shoigu: Yes, sir.

Vladimir Putin: This is the case when we have to prioritise preserving the lives and health of our soldiers and officers. Of course, this is our constant priority, but even more so in this case. There is no need to penetrate these catacombs and crawl under these industrial facilities.

Seal off the industrial zone completely.

Sergei Shoigu: Yes, sir.

Vladimir Putin: You must offer all those who have not laid down their weapons to do so. Russia guarantees them their lives and dignity as per the relevant international legal instruments. All the wounded will get medical assistance.

You successfully completed the combat effort to liberate Mariupol. Let me congratulate you on this occasion, and please convey my congratulations to the troops. I am also asking you to submit proposals on bestowing state decorations on the service personnel who distinguished themselves. Of course, as usual, there will be various decorations, but I want everyone to know that they are all heroes for us and for all of Russia.

In this context, we need to make sure that we fulfil all the social commitments to our service personnel, especially the wounded and the families of our fallen comrades.

However, I believe that this would not be enough. We have to do more and come up with additional support measures, and in some case to consider ways of perpetuating the memory of those of our comrades who displayed heroism and sacrificed their lives so that our people in Donbass live in peace and to enable Russia, our country, to live in peace. These people deserved this by what they did and the way they honoured their oath.

I am asking you to work on this matter within the Defence Ministry, while I will issue the corresponding instructions to the Presidential Executive Office. I will talk to my colleagues in the regions, and they will work with the municipalities across Russia.

Assuming control over Mariupol, a major city in the south of the country, is obviously a success. Congratulations.

Sergei Shoigu: Thank you, Mr President.

Source: President of Russia

    Andrews Labor More Housing For Workers In Ararat

    Sam Bernardo
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    Andrews Labor More Housing For Workers In Ararat

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    Image by Paul Brennan from Pixabay 


    The Andrews Labor Government is laying the groundwork for more housing to support workers in Ararat, creating jobs and supporting the region as it continues to grow.

    Minister for Regional Development Mary-Anne Thomas today visited the Ararat East Development Zone to view works underway and meet with workers who have moved to town as part of a resettlement program.

    Both initiatives are backed by a $1.88 million investment from the Labor Government’s Regional Workforce Pilots.

    Ararat is one of four sites across the state to benefit from the pilots, designed to test solutions to workforce shortages that threaten economic recovery and growth. 

    A lack of housing is a key driver of shortages, with Ararat rental vacancies falling from 1.5 per cent in March 2020 to 0.3 per cent in February this year.

    In the past two years, the region’s job vacancies have risen by 123 per cent. Works at the Ararat East Development Zone will create homes for up to 317 people.

    The Government has provided $950,000 towards the project which is set to support 134 jobs during the construction phase. Ararat Rural City Council has also contributed $300,000 to the project.

    Ararat is also home to a worker resettlement program which is backed by $650,000 in funding – a partnership between Ararat Rural City Council and the Wyndham Community and Education Centre to support new migrants by connecting them with community services, housing, and local employers.

    A coordinator role has also been developed and will provide local support for the resettlement program and the participants involved.

    The pilots support other existing Government investments designed to create more jobs and attract more workers to the region, including the Opportunities Pyrenees, Ararat and Northern Grampians (OPAN) project.

    This project has been supported by $550,000 funding through the Central Highlands Regional Partnership, which involves mapping existing and future housing and skills shortages to support business needs.

    In nearby Stawell, the Regional Infrastructure Fund supported the Sloane Street Housing Project with $500,000 for the development of essential infrastructure to enable the construction of more than 100 homes.

    The initiatives build on the Government’s historic $5.3 billion Big Housing Build to construct more than 12,000 new secure and modern, social and affordable homes throughout the state – with $1.25 billion being invested in regional Victoria.

    For more information visit https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/more-housing-workers-ararat

    Quote attributable to Minister for Regional Development Mary-Anne Thomas

    “We understand that workforce and housing shortages are a real issue in Ararat – which is why we are investing in a range of initiatives while supporting migrant workers to settle in town.”

    Source Premier of Victoria

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